Abstract
Floods are the major weather related disasters occurred in the last decades. Among all the flood risk mitigation measures, flood forecasting and warning systems gained many improvements in the past decades. Rainfall Threshold (RT) curves are an example of non-structural measurements, used for flood warning in small and medium-sized catchments. RT is defined as the precipitation depth that, for fixed temporal duration and initial soil moisture conditions, may generate the critical discharge in the critical section of the basin. The majority of RT do not take into account rainfall spatial variability, which was proved to have great influence in runoff generation. In this work we present a method to derive RT curves accounting for rainfall spatial variability, associating to each storm spatial configuration a specific probability of non-exceedance, based on the historical precipitation observations. Rainfall Thresholds are derived for a case study in Central Italy using a calibrated rainfall/runoff model based on the Width Function Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (WFIUH) theory. Our results show that considering a uniformly distributed storm can lead to severe overestimations of the RT and, therefore, influence the flood warning system efficiency.
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