Abstract TMP72: Multimodal Prediction Of Stroke Severity

Abstract

Introduction: Predicting individual outcomes post-stroke with the highest possible accuracy is a crucial steppingstone in the realization of precision medicine. We here evaluated various types of lesion information in their capacity to predict stroke severity in a large cohort of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Methods: A total of 1,075 patients of the MRI-GENIE study [age: 64.2(14.7), 38% women] contributed to analyses (N=792 as train and N=283 as test sample). We employed ridge regression with hyperparameter optimization and nested five-fold cross-validation to predict acute NIHSS-based stroke severity. Our baseline model considered DWI lesion volume. Further models tested structural lesion location, indirect structural and functional lesion connectivity, individually and combined with lesion volume. Data was preprocessed by principal component analysis (PCA), retaining 95% of the variance of the original data. Model performance was compared in terms of explained variance (R-squared) and 95% confidence intervals in the outer loop of the training set and the test set. Results: Structural lesion connectivity enabled the highest prediction performance in the test set ( Figure 1 ). Prediction performance did not change notably with inclusion of lesion volume information. This contrasted with the combination of functional lesion connectivity and lesion volume that achieved a substantially higher prediction performance compared to functional lesion connectivity or lesion volume in isolation. Lesion location resulted in a prediction performance that was in the range of lesion volume alone and significantly lower than the ones of structural or functional connectivity with lesion volume. Conclusions: Structural connectivity facilitated the most convincing prediction of stroke severity. The capacity of functional lesion connectivity was substantially improved by the inclusion of lesion volume, indicating both represent complementary information.