Abstract P421: Cardiovascular Death Trends in Minnesota From 2000-2017

Abstract

Background: The decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the United States noted since the mid 1970s has recently leveled off. This has generated concern and a need for further analyses to understand geographic variation, cause-specific deaths, location of death, and age-specific trends. Methods: Death certificate data obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health were used for analysis. The American Heart Association (AHA) classification was applied to the underlying cause of death to generate the following CVD categories: coronary heart disease (CHD), non-CHD diseases of the heart, and non-cardiac circulatory diseases. Temporal trends in death rates were explored by negative binomial regression, which enables estimates of age- and sex-adjusted average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Differences in AAPCs between 2000-2009 and 2010-2017 were tested overall and across demographic, CVD, and location of death categories. Results: CVD mortality rates, which were declining in 2000-2009, have leveled off in 2010-2017 (Table). These trends were observed across all subgroups. After adjusting for sex, the age group that drove the decline in rates from 2000-2009 was the 65-84 year old group, which experienced no change in rates from 2010-2017. Across CVD categories, after adjusting for age and sex, the decline in rates from 2000-2009 was largely attributable to steep reductions in CHD and non-cardiac circulatory diseases, with lesser reduction in non-CHD diseases of the heart. In 2010-2017, CHD and non-cardiac circulatory diseases rates showed no change, whereas the rate of non-CHD diseases of the heart increased. The rates for in- and out-of-hospital deaths improved in 2000-2009 with no further improvement observed in 2010-2017. Conclusions: CVD mortality rates are no longer declining in Minnesota, paralleling national trends. These trends are particularly concerning for non-CHD diseases of the heart.