Abstract 4349985: Whole Patient Targeting Highly Predicts Future Stroke Events: A Risk Stratification Model for Timely Intervention in Senior Populations

The long-term cardiovascular outcomes of a population-based cohort presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain and classified with a clinical risk stratification algorithm are not well documented. The Olmsted County Chest Pain Study is a community-based study that included all consecutive patients presenting with chest pain consistent with unstable angina presenting to all EDs in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were classified according to the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) criteria. Patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction and chest pain of noncardiac origin were excluded. Main outcome measures were major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days and at a median follow-up of 7.3 years, and mortality through a median of 16.6 years.The 2271 patients were classified as follows: 436 (19.2%) as high risk, 1557 (68.6%) as intermediate risk, and 278 (12.2%) as low risk. Thirty-day MACCE occurred in 11.5% in the high-risk group, 6.2% in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5% in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). At 7.3 years, significantly more MACCE were recorded in the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.91; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.33-2.75) and high-risk groups (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.67-3.58). Intermediate- and high-risk patients demonstrated a 1.38-fold (95% CI, 0.95-2.01; p = 0.09) and a 1.68-fold (95% CI, 1.13-2.50; p = 0.011) higher mortality, respectively, compared to low-risk patients at 16.6 years. At 7.3 and at 16.6 years of follow-up, biomarkers were not incrementally predictive of cardiovascular risk.In conclusion, a widely applicable rapid clinical algorithm using AHCPR criteria can reliably predict long-term mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. This algorithm, when applied in the ED, affords an excellent opportunity to identify patients who might benefit from a more aggressive cardiovascular risk factor management strategy.

The future of risk stratification in thoracic surgery

Endothelial dysfunction has been identified as an etiologic factor for osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (defined as major cardiovascular disease [CVD] and cerebrovascular accident [CVA]). However, the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in patients with nontraumatic ONFH and any association between the two diagnoses remain unclear. We compared a large cohort of patients with nontraumatic ONFH and a matched control group without this diagnosis and (1) examined the frequency and hazard ratio (HR) of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in both groups adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and associated comorbidities (which we defined as the adjusted HR), (2) determined whether any association of ONFH and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events was stable after adjusting for confounding variables, and (3) compared the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events with time in both groups. A population-based cohort with a 14-year dataset period (1997-2010) from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database was used for this retrospective study. The database includes a greater than 99.5% Asian population randomly selected from more than 23 million citizens and foreigners residing in Taiwan for longer than 6 months. A total of 1562 patients with nontraumatic ONFH were identified from a population of one million patients in the database after excluding initially concomitant diagnoses of major CVD and CVA. The comparison group (n = 15,620) without ONFH was analyzed in a one-to-10 ratio by matching the study cohort based on age, sex, income, and urbanization. The patients with ONFH had a higher frequency of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events than their counterparts without ONFH (19% versus 14%; p < 0.001). The patients with ONFH had 1.34- and 1.27-fold adjusted HRs for occurrence of major CVD and CVA as compared with the normal population (95% CI, 1.11-1.61, p = 0.002, and 95% CI, 1.09-1.47, p = 0.002, respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed a consistent association between ONFH and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events after controlling for potentially relevant confounding variables such as hypertension and diabetes. After adjusting for potential confounders including surgery and medications, ONFH remained independently associated with major CVD (adjusted HR, 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.03, p = 0.026) and CVA (adjusted HR, 2.44, 95% CI 1.69-3.51, p < 0.001), apart from age older than 65 years and traditional atherosclerotic risk factors. The cumulative incidence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events also was higher in the ONFH group than the non-ONFH group (30.3% vs 23.1% at the end of followup, p < 0.001). Patients with ONFH have a strong association with major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events as compared with the normal population, suggesting a potential common pathway involving endothelial dysfunction. In view of this association in the relatively young population with ONFH, it is important to closely monitor these patients, treat relevant comorbidities early, and investigate preventative measures for these major adverse events. Level III, prognostic study.

Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are at risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. There are no readily available risk scores that can accurately identify which patients are most likely to sustain an event, making it difficult to identify those who might benefit from more aggressive intervention. Thus, we aimed to develop a novel predictive model-using machine learning methods on electronic health record data-to identify which PAD patients are most likely to develop major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. Data were derived from patients diagnosed with PAD at 2 tertiary care institutions. Predictive models were built using a common data model that allowed for utilization of both structured (coded) and unstructured (text) data. Only data from time of entry into the health system up to PAD diagnosis were used for modeling. Models were developed and tested using nested cross-validation. A total of 7686 patients were included in learning our predictive models. Utilizing almost 1000 variables, our best predictive model accurately determined which PAD patients would go on to develop major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events with an area under the curve of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.80-0.83). Machine learning algorithms applied to data in the electronic health record can learn models that accurately identify PAD patients at risk of future major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, highlighting the great potential of electronic health records to provide automated risk stratification for cardiovascular diseases. Common data models that can enable cross-institution research and technology development could potentially be an important aspect of widespread adoption of newer risk-stratification models.

Leaflet thrombosis (LT) has become increasingly recognised following transcatheter and surgical aortic bioprosthetic valve (ABV) replacement and can be reliably identified by multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). However, it is an ongoing debate whether MDCT-defined LT is associated with adverse cerebrovascular outcomes. We sought to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis in order to assess the incidence and clinical outcomes associated with MDCT-defined leaflet thrombosis following (ABV) replacement. Electronic databases were searched for studies that performed mandatory MDCT imaging following ABV replacement. The primary endpoint was the incidence of cerebrovascular events, defined as a composite of stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Secondary endpoints included major adverse cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events (MACCE), stroke, TIA, death or myocardial infarction. In total, six studies met the inclusion criteria with 11.6% (198/1,704) of patients having MDCT-defined LT. The prevalence of LT following transcatheter and surgical ABV replacement was 13.2% and 3.6%, respectively. Cerebrovascular events were significantly increased in patients with LT (odds ratio [OR] 3.38, 95% CI: 1.78-6.41, p<0.001). The risk of MACCE (OR 2.10, 95% CI: 1.21-3.64, p<0.001) and TIA (OR 5.86, 95% CI: 2.05-16.75, p<0.001) was also increased in patients with LT, although there were no differences in the incidence of stroke (OR 2.43, 95% CI: 1.00-5.93, p=0.05), death (OR 0.92, 95% CI: 0.42-2.03, p=0.84) or myocardial infarction (OR 1.72, 95% CI: 0.34-9.78, p=0.54) between groups. MDCT-defined LT following ABV replacement is associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse cerebrovascular events. Further prospective studies are required to ascertain whether LT can be prevented or treated with pharmacological strategies.

Atypical antipsychotic agents have been associated with cerebrovascular adverse events, particularly in elderly dementia patients. However, limited evidence exists regarding comparative cerebrovascular profiles of individual atypical agents, particularly in community settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of cerebrovascular events associated with use of risperidone, olanzapine and quetiapine in community-dwelling older adults in the US. A propensity score-adjusted retrospective cohort design involving the IMS LifeLink™ Health Plan Claims Database was used for the study. The study population included all older adults (aged ≥50 years) who initiated risperidone, olanzapine or quetiapine anytime during 1 July 2000 to 30 June 2008. Patients were followed until hospitalization or an emergency room visit for a cerebrovascular event, or the end of the study period, whichever occurred earlier. The Cox proportional hazard regression model with time-varying covariates was used to evaluate the risk of cerebrovascular events during the follow-up period, using olanzapine as the reference. The covariates adjusted for in the final model included multiple propensity scores and exposure to other medications that could be associated with the risk of cerebrovascular events. A total of 2,458 cerebrovascular events were identified in the study cohort: 1,081 (21.38%) for risperidone users, 816 (18.75%) for olanzapine users and 561 (21.05%) for quetiapine users. After adjusting for propensity scores and other covariates, the Cox proportional hazard model revealed that use of quetiapine [hazard ratio (HR) 0.88; 95% CI 0.78, 0.99] but not risperidone (HR 1.05; 95% CI 0.95, 1.16) was associated with a decrease in the risk of cerebrovascular adverse events compared with olanzapine. The study suggested that quetiapine use may be associated with a moderately lower risk of cerebrovascular events than olanzapine in older adults. Prescribers should closely monitor the patients treated with atypical agents for the incidence of cerebrovascular adverse events.

Cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and galectin-3 have emerged as biomarker candidates to predict cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in the general population as well as in patients with coronary artery or renal disease. However, their predictive role and clinical utility in patients with acute coronary syndromes alone or in combination beyond currently used risk scores remains to be determined. Cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, and galectin-3 were measured in plasmas of 1832 patients at the time of presentation with acute coronary syndromes requiring percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting. The primary outcomes were major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (defined as the composite of all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular events, any repeat revascularization or myocardial infarction) and all-cause mortality after 1 year and occurred in 192 (10.5%) and 78 (4.3%) of patients, respectively. All three biomarkers were increased in those with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events compared with those without (p<0.001). However, only galectin-3 (all-cause mortality: hazard ratio=1.027 (95% confidence interval (1.011-1.043); p=0.001), major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events: hazard ratio=1.025 (95% confidence interval (1.012-1.037); p<0.001)) but not cystatin C nor neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin emerged as independent predictors of both major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events and death. The risks were particularly high in the highest quartile of galectin-3. The integration of galectin-3 into the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) score improved the prediction of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events and all-cause mortality significantly. The areas under the receiver operator characteristics curves increased from 0.6701 to 0.6932 for major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (p=0.0474) and from 0.804 to 0.8199 for all-cause mortality (p=0.0197). Finally, we applied net reclassification improvement index using different cut-offs for major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events which showed negative results (for the cut-offs of 5% and 15%, net reclassification improvement index 0.028, p=0.586, for the cut-offs of 10% and 20%, net reclassification improvement index 0.072, p=0.1132 and for the cut-offs of 10% and 30% the net reclassification improvement index is 0.0843, p=0.077). In acute coronary syndromes patients, galectin-3 has moderate prognostic accuracy, provides statistically significant incremental value in some, but not all models, and that the magnitude of any improvement would seem of questionable clinical value.

The risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following acute coronary syndrome is increased in people with diabetes. Predicting out-of-hospital outcomes upon follow-up remains difficult, and no simple, well-validated tools exist for this population at present. We aim to evaluate several factors in a competing risks model for actionable evaluation of the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in diabetic outpatients following acute coronary syndrome. Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome in two centres. A Fine-Gray competing risks model was adjusted to predict major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events and all-cause mortality. A point-based score is presented that is based on this model. Out of the 1400 patients, there were 783 (55.9%) with at least one major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event (417 deaths). Of them, 143 deaths were due to non-major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. Predictive Fine-Gray models show that the 'PG-HACKER' risk factors (gender, age, peripheral arterial disease, left ventricle function, previous congestive heart failure, Killip class and optimal medical therapy) were associated to major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. The PG-HACKER score is a simple and effective tool that is freely available and easily accessible to physicians and patients. The PG-HACKER score can predict major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following acute coronary syndrome in patients with diabetes.

Objective To observe the incidence, clinical characteristics, related factors, adverse events during hospitalization and short-term prognosis of postprandial hypotension (PPH) in elderly patients with coronary heart disease. Methods One hundred and sixty-eight elderly patients with coronary heart disease hospitalized in the Department of Cardiology, Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2014 to January 2015 were selected as the research subjects.They were monitored by 24 h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.According to the diagnostic criteria of PPH, they were divided into postprandial hypotension group (PPH group) 34 cases and non-postprandial hypotension group (NPPH group) 134 cases.The clinical characteristics, risk factors related to PPH, occurrence of adverse events and prognosis of all-cause death, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular adverse events were compared between the two groups. Results Among 168 elderly patients with coronary heart disease, thirty-four patients had PPH, and the incidence rate was 20.2%(34/168). The average systolic blood pressure before meals in PPH group was (139.8±18.6) mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa). The proportion of taking calcium antagonists was 50.0% (17/34) higher than that in NPPH group (127.4±13.2)mmHg, 27.6% (37/134). The difference between the two groups was statistically significant(t=6.463, χ2=6.232, P<0.05). PPH was higher in breakfast and dinner than in lunch; the higher the basal systolic blood pressure level, the higher the incidence of PPH.Logistic regression analysis showed that the basal systolic blood pressure level and age were positively correlated with the occurrence of PPH (r=0.301, r=0.208, P<0.05). Follow-up for 26 months showed that the incidence of all-cause death and cerebrovascular events in PPH group was higher than that in NPPH group (χ2=5.800, 11.560, P<0.05). Conclusion The incidence of PPH in elderly patients with coronary heart disease during hospitalization is 20.2%.Breakfast and dinner at three meals are prone to PPH.Older age and high systolic blood pressure level will increase the incidence of PPH.PPH will increase the incidence of mid-term all-cause death and cerebrovascular events. Key words: Postprandial hypotension; Coronary heart disease; Prognosis

Taurine levels and long-term adverse cerebrovascular risk in moyamoya disease: A prognostic perspective study.

Comparison of Additional Versus No Additional Heparin During Therapeutic Oral Anticoagulation in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BackgroundFew studies on the risk of incident major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in presarcopenic and sarcopenic patients have been reported, with contradictory results [1].ObjectivesThe objective was to assess the...

Atrial septal defect (ASD) is a risk factor for multiple vascular thrombotic events, which can occur either sequentially or simultaneously. In this report we present a case of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and cerebrovascular accident (CVA). The severity of adverse cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events can be increased by the presence of specific type of ASD, such as a patent foramen ovale (PFO) or osteum secundum defect. This case report discusses a unique presentation of a 48-year old male on warfarin therapy for a history of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) who subsequently presented with simultaneous STEMI with CVA, and who was incidentally found to have an ostium secundum defect on echocardiography. He was emergently taken for cardiac catheterization, which revealed significant proximal LAD occlusion. There has been a long standing debate within the international scientific communities regarding the therapeutic benefit of PFO closure for long-term secondary prevention of recurrence CVA. We discuss the different points of view regarding PFO closure for secondary prevention of CVA with a review of the literature on this rather controversial topic.

We retrospectively analyzed the long-term outcomes and risk predictors of conventional coronary artery bypass grafting routinely employed for patients with left main disease. From January 2000 through December 2009, conventional coronary artery bypass grafting was routinely employed in 193 consecutive patients with left main disease. Long-term analyses were performed, looking at the primary endpoint of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events which included all-cause death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We also analyzed the effects of variables on major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events at 9 years after the operation. The overall 9-year rates of combined outcomes (death, stroke, myocardial infarction), repeat revascularization, and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were 20.2%, 8.9%, 27.7%, respectively. The SYNTAX score was demonstrated to be the only significant predictor of combined outcomes at 9 years (hazard ratio 1.04, p = 0.033), repeat revascularization at 9 years (hazard ratio 1.11, p = 0.0030), and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events at 9 years (hazard ratio 1.07, p = 0.0003). With our routine strategy of conventional coronary artery bypass for left main disease, patients revealed excellent long-term outcomes in terms of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. These results provide a suitable benchmark against which long-term outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention for left main disease can be compared. The SYNTAX score, which was introduced to determine treatment for complex coronary disease, is indicative of long-term outcomes after coronary artery bypass for left main disease.

Use of Administrative Claims Data to Estimate Treatment Effects for 30 Versus 12 Months of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Findings From the EXTEND-DAPT Study.