Abstract 25: Six-year Change in C-reactive Protein Levels and Risk of Incident Diabetes, Cardiovascular Events and Mortality

Abstract

Background: High levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are associated with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and mortality. It is unclear whether changes in CRP or persistently high CRP are associated with these outcomes beyond the baseline measure. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of 10,229 participants from the ARIC Study with two measurements of CRP six years apart (at visits 2 and 4, 1990-92 and 1996-98, respectively). CRP was categorized into two groups using a standard cut-point for defining high levels (≥3 vs. <3 mg/L). Six-year change in CRP was categorized as: persistently not high (<3 mg/L), decreasing (≥3 to <3 mg/L), increasing (<3 to ≥3 mg/L), and persistently high (≥3 mg/L). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between visit 2 CRP, visit 4 CRP and six-year change in CRP and each of the following outcomes from visit 4 through 2010: diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure and all-cause mortality. Models were adjusted for traditional risk factors at visit 2. Sensitivity analyses additionally adjusted for visit 4 covariates. Results: Persons with CRP ≥3 mg/L at visit 2 or 4 had higher risk of each outcome compared to those with CRP <3 mg/L ( Table ). We observed higher risk of all outcomes in persons with persistently high CRP, and of all outcomes except stroke in persons with increasing CRP, compared to those with CRP <3 mg/L at both visits ( Table ). Persons whose CRP decreased from high to <3 mg/L did not have significantly increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes or diabetes compared to those with CRP persistently <3 mg/L. Results were similar after adjusting for visit 4 covariates. Conclusions: Persons with sustained high levels of CRP or whose CRP increased to high levels had higher risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and death, while those whose levels decreased from high to moderate or low were at lower risk. Multiple measures of CRP may better characterize inflammatory status and provide more comprehensive information regarding long-term risk.