A value tree for identification of evaluation criteria for solar thermal power technologies in developing countries

Abstract

The diversification of electricity generation is necessary for the sustainable development of developing countries and to reduce greenhouse emissions. Solar thermal power technologies are advancing and expected to play a significant role in energy portfolios in the future. Accordingly, it is essential to identify comprehensive combination of criteria for assessing these technologies. Various researchers used different parameter combinations for multiple criteria evaluation in renewable energy portfolio planning. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the structured deliberation and the following analysis to formulate a combination of assessment parameters for solar thermal power technologies based on data providers’ judgment. A generic value tree of evaluation parameters is therefore obtained for solar thermal power technologies in developing countries. Expert elicitation was conducted through the Delphi method, with a total of 140 data providers from multidisciplinary solar thermal power fields affiliated in educational institutes, research centers, governmental organizations, and industrial companies from 32 countries participating in the survey. Five impact categories and nineteen performance measures were combined following a comprehensive literature review to derive a preliminary value tree. Based on participants’ judgments, as expressed during two rounds of Delphi questionnaires, parameters with importance and consensus degrees>50% were incorporated into the final value tree. Each parameter had a variation coefficient of <29%. The output of the process is an aggregated value tree, consisting of 31 performance measures categorized under four main impact categories (technical, economic, environmental, and social). Technical and economic impact categories were rated as most important and achieved the highest degrees of consensus. At performance measures level, economic feasibility obtained the highest level of importance and consensus degrees, followed by reliability, capital cost, storage hours, and water consumption. The recommendations of this work can be utilized as a foundation for stakeholder assessment of regional solar thermal power utilities planning in developing countries.