A two-stage electricity consumption forecasting method integrated hybrid algorithms and multiple factors

Abstract

Electricity consumption forecasting provides a reference basis for electricity scheduling, it has become a research hotspot in the field of electric power. The fluctuation of electricity consumption is influenced by multiple factors, which has strong randomness and are strongly disturbed by noise. Single algorithms cannot ensure the stability and accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting. To address this problem, a two-stage framework for electricity consumption forecasting is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, multi-forecasting algorithms are considered to eliminate noise and forecast the electricity consumption trend. A hybrid model is constructed, which consists of three parts: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT). The EEMD method is employed to decompose the electricity consumption signal into different frequency components. GRU and GBRT are adopted to forecast high-frequency and low-frequency components respectively. In the second stage, multidimensional meteorological factors are considered to further improve the accuracy of the electricity consumption forecasting. A structure for feature extraction is constructed to reduce the dimension of meteorological factors. The experimental results indicate that the two-stage framework model outperforms mainstream measurement models by an average reduction of 35.7% and 43.2% in MAE and RMSE.