A trigger mechanism for the Lake Nyos disaster

Abstract

The catastrophic release of carbon dioxide gas from Lake Nyos on 21 August 1986 is discussed in the context of the buoyancy reversal instability. Originally proposed by Randall (1980) [Randall, D.S., 1980. Conditional instability of the first kind upside-down. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 37: 125–130.] and Deardoff (1980) [Deardoff, J.W., 1980. Cloud-top entrainment instability. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 37: 131–147.] for the `cloud-top entrainment instability' of stratocumulus clouds, the buoyancy reversal instability has been studied experimentally in water tank experiments by Shy and Breidenthal (1990) [Shy, S.S., Breidenthal, R.E., 1990. Laboratory experiments on the cloud-top entrainment instability. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 214: 1–15.], who identified three criteria for instability. The initial disturbance must be sufficiently large, so that its Reynolds number is above the mixing transition, its Richardson number must be less than one to achieve overturning and mixing, and the buoyancy reversal parameter must be greater than a critical value, of order one. The implications and applicability of these criteria to Lake Nyos are discussed. The criterion for the Reynolds number is easily satisfied for typical wind velocities in the Lake Nyos region. Similarly, the Richardson number based on incident turbulence is easily less than unity, and therefore satisfy the second criterion for instability. In the case of Lake Nyos, the continuous release of carbon dioxide at the bottom of the lake increases the value of the buoyancy reversal parameter until it reaches its critical value, at which point an explosion occurs. This instability provides a plausible trigger for the 1986 explosion. After each explosion, the buoyancy reversal parameter returns to below its critical value, only to slowly rise again over time, as CO 2 continues to enter the lake, setting the stage for the next explosion. Future explosions may be avoided if the value of the buoyancy reversal parameter is prevented from approaching its critical value by artificial mixing at the thermocline, such as with a bubble plume.