A Texture Analysis–Based Prediction Model for Lymph Node Metastasis in Stage IA Lung Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Some clinical N0 lung adenocarcinomas have been pathologically diagnosed as N1 or N2. To improve the preoperative diagnostic accuracy of lymph node disease, we developed a prediction model for lymph node metastasis in cT1 N0 M0 lung adenocarcinoma based on computed tomography texture analysis and clinical characteristics to estimate the probability of lymph node metastasis. The records of 501 consecutive patients with cT1 N0 M0 lung adenocarcinoma who underwent computed tomography scan and pulmonary resection with systematic lymph nodes dissection or lymph nodes sampling were reviewed. Each nodule was manually segmented, and its computerized texture features were extracted. Multivariate logistic regression with fivefold validation was used to estimate independent predictors and build the prediction model. The prediction model was then externally validated. A nomogram was developed based on logistic regression results. Among 501 patients, 41 were diagnosed withpositive lymph nodes (8.18%). Four independent predictors were identified: the skewness and 90th percentile of computed tomography number, nodule compactness, and carcinoembryonic antigen level. This model showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p= 0.337), with an area under the curve of 0.883(95% confidence interval, 0.842 to 0.924; p < 0.001). The area under the curve was 0.808 (95% confidence interval, 0.735 to 0.880) when validated with independent data. A model based on computerized textures and carcinoembryonic antigen level can assess the lymph node status of patients with cT1 N0 M0 lung adenocarcinoma preoperatively, which could assist surgeons in making subsequent clinical decisions.