A techno-economic analysis of asteroid mining

Abstract

Asteroid mining has been proposed as an approach to complement Earth-based supplies of rare earth metals and to supply resources in space, such as water. However, existing studies on the economic viability of asteroid mining do not provide much guidance on which technological improvements would be needed for increasing its economic viability. This paper develops a techno-economic analysis of asteroid mining with the objective of providing basic recommendations for future technology development and performance improvements. Both, providing water in space as well as returning platinum to Earth are considered. Starting from first principles of techno-economic analysis, gradually additional economic and technological factors are added to the analysis model. Applied to mining missions involving spacecraft reuse, learning curve effect, and multiple spacecraft, their economic viability is assessed. A sensitivity analysis with respect to throughput rate, spacecraft mass, and resource price is performed. Furthermore, a sample asteroid mining architecture for volatiles based on small CubeSat-class spacecraft is presented. It is concluded that key technological drivers for asteroid mining missions are throughput rate, number of spacecraft per mission, and the rate in which successive missions are conducted. Furthermore, for returning platinum to Earth, market reaction strongly influences its economic viability and it seems to be economically viable only under unlikely conditions.