A tale of two analyses: estimating the consequences of shifts in hexapod diversification

Abstract

I present a novel descriptive (non-statistical) method to help identify the location and importance of shifts in diversification across a phylogeny. The method first estimates radiation rates across terminal higher taxa and then subjects these rates to a parsimony analysis across the phylogeny. The reconstructions define the magnitude, direction and influence of past shifts in realized diversification rates across nodes. I apply the method to data on the extant hexapod orders. The results indicate that the Coleoptera (beetles) and Diptera (flies) have contributed large upward shifts in diversification tendency, without which, under the model employed, global species richness would be reduced by 20% and 6%, respectively. The origin of Neoptera (insects with wing flexion), identified elsewhere as a significant radiation, may represent a large positive, a large negative or zero influence on current species richness, depending on the assumed phylogeny and parsimony method. The most influential radiations are attributable to the origin of the Eumetabola (insects with complete metamorphosis plus bugs and their relatives) and Pterygota (winged insects), but there is presently only weak evidence that they represent significant shifts in underlying diversification tendency. These analyses support some but not all results of previous phylogenetic analyses and the identity of the most important shift therefore remains elusive. New methodology involving comparisons across multiple taxa is likely to be necessary. © 2003 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2003, 80, 23–36.