A survey on massive number of patients overcrowded in the emergency department of tertiary hospital in a pattern of diurnal rhythm and holiday phenomenon

Abstract

Objective To study the variation in numbers of patients attended in the Emergency Department (ER) of a large - scale teaching hospital during weekends or holidays and workdays in order to find out an objective criterion for the assessment of ER overcrowding and the regularity of ER overcrowding.Methods It was a prospective observational study of variation in number of.patient attended in ER during different periods of time round the clock observed from May 1 through October 31 in 2008 -2010 with 110000 emergency patients annually.The roles of diurnal rhythm,holiday phenomenon and medical coverage in the variation in numbers of patients were observed.The multiple logistic regression analysis was used to define the criterion of ED overcrowding.Results During workdays,the regularity of variation in number of critically ill patients seen to in ER was distinctive,the number of patients peaked in the period of 20:00 -22:00 and bottomed out in the period of 4:00 -6:00,while overcrowding scores of both peak and bottom were carried out 2 hours later.The number of emergency patients significantly increased at weekends and long holidays in a form of double peaks,from 10 am to 12 pm and 8 pm to 10 pm.The number of emergency patients was obviously determined by the provisions of medical coverage,but it was only true to non - critical patients,while the number of critical patients did not noticeably change during weekends or holydays.Multivariate regression analysis showed that the number of emergency patient attended in ER ( B =0.027,P ＜0.01 ) and the rate of emergency bed occupancy ( B =5.25,P ＜0.01 ) in the period of two hours significantly correlated with the ER overcrowding in the coming period of two hours (B =0.027,P ＜0.01,B =5.25,P ＜ 0.01,respectively).Conclusions The demand for critical care resources varies up and down all the time.The variation in volume of critical patients is quite regular during workdays and weekdays or holydays.It is important to separate critical patients from non - critical patients in order to divert non - critical patients quickly.Prediction of overcrowding in ER can be made with knowledge of the number of patient attended and the rate of bed occupancy,if the provisions of medical coverage unchanged.This regularity of variation in number of patients can be used as a practical guidance to rational allocation of critical care resources and improvement of patient throughput. Key words: Emergency medicine; Overcrowding; Patient flow; Epidemiology; Fast track