Abstract
A forecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Ba ss model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theor y has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. This study considers the Bass Model for forecasting the diffusion of new products or a n innovation in the Malaysian society. The objective of the proposed model is to represent the level of spread on new products among a given set of society in ter ms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed s ince the introduction of new products. With limited amou nt of data available for new products, a robust Bas s model was developed to forecast the sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation show that the proposed Bass d iffusion model is robust and effective for forecast ing demand of new products. This study concludes that t he newly developed bass diffusion of demand functio n has significantly contributed for forecasting the d iffusion of new products.
Highlights
Demand forecasting is an iterative process for estimating the quantity of products or services that to existing product lines, improvements and revisions to existing products, repositioning and cost reductions
We focus on new product demand forecasting which receives less attention among the researchers
Since there were not many previous studies of Bass model on the new product vehicle demand forecasting, this study focuses on developing bass model for forecasting new vehicle demand
Summary
Demand forecasting is an iterative process for estimating the quantity of products or services that to existing product lines, improvements and revisions to existing products, repositioning and cost reductions. Many approaches When dealing with new product demand, there are are available in demand forecasting which include the problems to be considered. New product informal and formal method of forecasting. It is essential for companies to produce the required quantities at the right time and arrange well in advance for various elements in the production processes. New product demand forecasting is a process that determines a reasonable estimate of sales attainable under a given set of conditions. Time requires to develop forecast of new products is longer because it requires more manual attention. In the past few decades, many studies were made on demand forecasting but currently not much has been done on forecasting of new product demand. New product forecasting serves as a reality check by providing visibility to what is likely to happen.
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