A Study of the Microdynamics of Early-Childhood Learning.

When China's leaders launched rural reforms in the late 1970s, they acknowledged the nation's need to modify its commitment to egalitarianism.1 Slogans such as Tt is glorious to be rich!' and 'Some areas will lead; others will follow!' signalled this fundamental shift in ideology. Leaders backed up these exhortations with a series of concrete policy actions ? establishing the Special Economic Zones and implementing the East Coast-first policy, introducing financial reforms, and initiating the rural industrialization movement. In China's version of the 'trickle down' theory, certain core areas were to take the lead in the modernization process and provide models for other areas to later emulate. Adopting strategies that had been employed

Using the tools of regional dynamic models for analyzing the economy of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in particular, for studying regional business cycles is currently an urgent task. It is determined by the need to develop system conceptions about the factors, conditions and prerequisites for the development of regions, about the features and trends of the dynamics of their sector and territorial structure. The purpose of the article is to develop a dynamic stochastic multi-sector model for analyzing the effects of regional economic policy. The scientific novelty of the research concerns the development and implementation of dynamic models with microeconomic justification to formalize the processes of regional development, the sustainability of regional policy and spatial development. Similar class of models, that forms the theoretical foundation of contemporary macro-economics, is currently used for the analysis of national economy mostly. Models of such class that describe the processes in the regional economy are practically absent. The original tools for the construction of a regional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, suggested by the authors, describe the structure of a real sector of the economy of Sverdlovsk region. Parameterization of the model was made on the empirical data basis about the economy of Sverdlovsk region for 2003–2016. The behaviour of the following economic operators has been considered in the model: households; firms operating in the real sector of economy, the regional and federal government, and the Central Bank. Fiscal multipliers for three sectors of the economy – tradable goods sector, non-tradable goods sector and resource sector have been calculated with impulse response functions. The analysis of fiscal multipliers has revealed that the shock of the effective tax rate on individual income and the sock of regional costs have the most significant effect on the output in the above considered sectors of economy among all the rest fiscal shocks. The use of the tools in the form of a historical decomposition of regional variables demonstrates the results of the impact of supply and demand shocks in a time perspective on the output in the three sectors of the regional economy. The results of temporal decomposition of the variations of the endogenous variables mentioned above suggest that the cyclic processes in the regional economy of Sverdlovsk region during the study period are largely due to factors of supply rather than demand. The research results may be used both for the analysis of the regional economic policy priorities and for the development of measures aimed at the decrease of possible crisis phenomena in the regional economy. The trend to the construction of multi-sector models of regional economy in the framework of general equilibrium approach with the macroeconomics justification and rational expectations of economic operators described in the article stresses the importance and prospects of further studies. In particular, to reflect the specifics of the regions, it is necessary to take into account the institutional factors of each region in the model. This issue is an interesting theme for further research in the field of modeling of regional social and economic systems. Keywords region, regional economic policy, dynamic stochastic model, tradable and non-tradable goods sector, resource sector, fiscal multipliers, demand shocks, supply shocks, impulse response functions, historical decomposition of variations of endogenous variables. Acknowledgements The article has been written according to the Plan of Research and Development of the Institute of Economics, the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2019–2021.

Based on Desli et al. (2003), this comment defines a stochastic frontier production model in a panel data framework. The firms can learn from their past errors to improve technical efficiency. This is done by introducing the inefficiency error term as an AR(p) process. The ways to estimate the production function and technical inefficiency are provided.

The objective of this paper is to understand the effects of China’s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications. We draw from New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in China’s rural economy. Using simultaneous-equation econometric techniques and household survey data from China, we estimate net, sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income, focusing on farm production and self-employment. Our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas. However, we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost-labor effect, contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self-employment production. This finding offers evidence in support of the NELM hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect-market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries. Taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size, participating in migration increases household per-capita income between 14 and 30 percent. Migration and Incomes in Source Communities: A New Economics of Migration Perspective from China China is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history (Solinger, 1999; Rozelle et al., 1999). Despite the rapid expansion of labor migration, China’s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per-capita GDP (Taylor and Martin, 2001). Hence, as China’s economy continues to expand, the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate (Johnson, 1999). The massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in China’s migration in recent years. However, as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries, most recent studies on China’s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow, macroeconomic implications of increased migration, and the effects of migration on urban areas (Zhao, 1999; Yang, 1999; 1997). Less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave, even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration– both those who leave and those who stay behind (exceptions include Wang and Zuo, 1999; Bai, 2001). Moreover, the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected (MOA, 1999). They are concerned that as labor flows away from farms, food production and crop income will decline, potentially threatening China’s food security. Furthermore, policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes. If migration exacerbates this gap, some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill-equipped to absorb them. Others fear that discontent over a rising urban-rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest (Yang, 1999). Because China’s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped, migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well-functioning markets and/or institutions (Knight and Song, 1999; Benjamin and Brandt, 2000). The “new economics of labor migration” (NELM) literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision (Stark, 1991). The NELM hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide

The Tribal Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (Tribal MIECHV) Program provides federal grants to tribes, tribal consortia, tribal organizations, and urban Indian organizations to implement evidence-based home-visiting services for American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) families. To date, only one evidence-based home-visiting program has been developed for use in AI/AN communities. The purpose of this article is to describe the steps that four Tribal MIECHV Programs took to assess community needs, select a home-visiting model, and culturally adapt the model for use in AI/AN communities. In these four unique Tribal MIECHV Program settings, each program employed a rigorous needs-assessment process and developed cultural modifications in accordance with community strengths and needs. Adaptations occurred in consultation with model developers, with consideration of the conceptual rationale for the program, while grounding new content in indigenous cultures. Research is needed to improve measurement of home-visiting outcomes in tribal and urban AI/AN settings, develop culturally grounded home-visiting interventions, and assess the effectiveness of home visiting in AI/AN communities.

BackgroundThe Federal Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (HV) Program serves over 100,000 vulnerable families at risk for child abuse in the USA and aims to improve many outcomes, including maternal mental health (HRSA’s Federal Home Visiting Program: partnering with parents to help children succeed, 2017). Most clients are insured by Medicaid, and about 40% are adolescent mothers (pregnant and post-delivery) (The mother and infant home visiting program evaluation: early findings on the Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program, 2015). Over a third of home-visited clients report peripartum depressive symptoms (The mother and infant home visiting program evaluation: early findings on the Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program, 2015). Family conflict increases rates of peripartum depression in adolescent mothers (J Ped Health Care 21:289–98, 2007; J Emot Behav Disord 5:173–83, 1997; Fam Relat 47:395–402, 1998; Arch Ped Adolesc Med 150:64–9, 1996; Obstet Gynecol 110:134–40, 2007; Am Fam Physician 93:852–58, 2016). Although home visitors screen for depression and refer those with positive screens for treatment (The mother and infant home visiting program evaluation: early findings on the Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting Program, 2015), home-visited mothers infrequently obtain treatment or do not complete it if they do obtain it (Curr Probl Ped Adolesc Health Care 46:124–9, 2016; Making a difference in the lives of children and families: the impacts of Early Head Start Programs on infants and toddlers and their families, 2002; Depression and low-income women: challenges for TANF and welfare-to-work policies and programs, 2001; Aggress Violent Behav 15:191–200, 2010) due to many barriers (e.g., lack of child care, lack of transportation, geographical distance) (Arch Gen Psychiatry 68:627–36, 2011). There is a need for a video-based, family-oriented treatment for peripartum depression that is integrated into home visiting and would bypass these barriers. This article outlines a protocol for a pilot study that will explore the feasibility and acceptability of implementing a family-based treatment, using HIPAA-compliant video-based communication technology, for adolescents with peripartum depressive symptoms within the context of home visiting.MethodsThis study protocol includes a description of an implementation-effectiveness hybrid trial design that will include 12 depressed adolescent mothers and their family members and a historical comparison group of 12 previously enrolled adolescent mothers.DiscussionThe study results will provide a clearer understanding of whether or not video-based, family-oriented treatment is feasible and acceptable to implement within the context of home visiting and with home-visited adolescents with peripartum depressive symptoms. The findings from this pilot study could serve as a catalyst for future research that influences mental health practices and policies.Trial registrationNCT03282448, ClinicalTrials.gov date of registration 09/21/2017.

A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis

Why has it been exceedingly difficult to restructure China's village-level, political institutions? Over and above hurdles arising from belated leadership support and bureaucratic squabbling, implementation of The Organic Law of Villagers' Committees has depended on how villagers and local cadres perceive their interests and understand their resources. Although the Law does not generate a single pattern of concerted, localist opposition, aspects of it alienate one or another affected party almost everywhere. Outside the singularly favorable conditions found in not poor, "up-to-standard" villages with a strong collective sector, cadre resistance and villager skepticism have been considerable. In many paralyzed, authoritarian, and "run-away" localities, balancing demands to increase state penetration and popular participation have impinged on the interests of both cadres and villagers and simultaneous acceptance of both key aims of the Law has proven to be difficult to secure.

In China, as in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, economic reform initiatives seek to increase productivity by introducing elements of market-oriented policies and institutions into an economy formerly dominated by state planning. Efforts to evaluate the impact of reform of Chinese industry have focused on the measurement of productivity change in state enterprises. This study expands the prior framework of analysis in several directions. Our investigation of productivity trends is not limited to state enterprises but includes quantitative comparisons with China's fast-growing collective industries, which contributed 36% of overall industrial output in 1988.1 Unlike previous studies, our analysis works with gross rather than net output. This permits us to investigate changes in the productivity of intermediate inputs, which occupy a large portion of total costs in Chinese industry, as well as labor and capital. To do this, we develop a "quasi-frontier" estimation procedure which seems appropriate for comparisons of total factor productivity based on Chinese industrial data. Finally, we offer a quantitative perspective on the extent to which reform efforts have moved industrial resource allocation toward patterns expected of a market system. The analysis confirms our previous finding, based on a restricted framework employing only labor, fixed capital, and net output, that multifactor productivity in state industry has risen substantially during

Shenggen FanInternational Food Policy Research Institute and Institute of AgriculturalEconomics of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesLinxiu ZhangCenter for Chinese Agricultural Policy of the Chinese Academy of SciencesXiaobo ZhangInternational Food Policy Research InstituteI. IntroductionChina is one of the few countries in the developing world that has madeprogress in reducing its total number of poor over the past 25 years.

In this paper technical efficiency is introduced via the intercept that evolve over time as a AR(1) process in a stochastic frontier (SF) framework in a panel data framework. Following are the distinguishing features of the model. First, the model is dynamic in nature. Second, it can separate technical inefficiency from fixed firm-specific effects which are not part of inefficiency. Third, the model allows estimation of technical change separate from change in technical efficiency. It is proposed that the ML method be used estimate the parameters of the model. Finally, expressions are derived to calculate/predict technical inefficiency (efficiency).

Private income transfers are becoming increasingly recognized as a key aspect of the U.S. economy. The majority of private income transfers occur inter vivos (i.e., between living persons), but very little is known about this type of transfer behavior. This paper tests alternative hypotheses concerning motivation for inter vivos transfers. Two motives are considered: altruism and exchange. Evidence presented here casts doubt on the altruistic model of transfer behavior. Observed patterns for inter vivos transfers are more consistent with exchange-related motives. This finding has important implications for the effects of public transfer programs on the distribution of economic well-being.

Development of stochastic dynamic Nash game model for reservoir operation II. The value of players’ information availability and cooperative behaviors

ObjectiveAdvisory committees in Canada and the United States have updated recommendations for quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines against serogroups A, C, W135, and Y. Our objective was to evaluate optimally effective meningococcal vaccination policies using a stochastic dynamic model. Canada was used as an example. MethodsOur stochastic dynamic model of Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) transmission in an age-structured population assumed partial cross-immunity among two aggregated serogroup categories: ‘AWY’ containing A, W135, and Y; and ‘Other’ containing B, C, and ungroupable types. We compared the impact of monovalent C versus quadrivalent ACWY vaccination on Nm carriage and invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Our model was parameterized with Canadian epidemiological and demographic data and employed probabilistic sensitivity analysis. ResultsRoutine infant immunization at 12 months and boosting at 15 years with a quadrivalent vaccine is projected to have the largest impact on total IMD incidence: a 74% reduction over 40 years. Routine infant immunization with a monovalent vaccine at 12 months only has much less impact and also generates strain replacement appearing after approximately ten years of continuous use. ConclusionsImmunizing infants at 12 months and boosting adolescents at 15 years with an ACWY vaccine is predicted to be most effective at reducing IMD incidence.

We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on experience or subjective judgment. Because of the complex or intractable likelihood in most dynamical models, likelihood‐based approaches for model selection are not suitable. We use approximate Bayesian computation for parameter estimation and model selection to gain further understanding of the dynamics of two epidemics of chronic wasting disease in mule deer. The main novel contribution of this work is that, under a hierarchical model framework, we compare three types of dynamical models: ordinary differential equation, continuous‐time Markov chain, and stochastic differential equation models. To our knowledge, model selection between these types of models has not appeared previously. Because the practice of incorporating dynamical models into data models is becoming more common, the proposed approach may be very useful in a variety of applications. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.