A structured approach for the assessment of system availability and reliability using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

PurposeThis paper proposes a method to model and assess the availability and reliability of a system when numerous factors such as system complexity, wide range of failure modes, environment, and sustainability may influence system behaviour.Design/methodology/approachThe approach for reliability/availability study is using continuous time stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo simulation) and is based on seven steps for covering logical phases from system description to simulation result discussion. The feasibility and benefits of this approach are shown in a case study on cogeneration plant.FindingsOwing to the factors influencing the system behaviour, the opportunity to carry out system availability/reliability assessment through analytical models will be many times very restrictive. Thus a general approach to this problem is proposed based on Monte Carlo (stochastic) simulation. The simulation of the system's life process will be carried out in the computer, and estimates will be made for the desired measures of performance. The simulation will then be treated as a series of real experiments, and statistical inference will then be used to estimate confidence intervals for the performance metrics.Practical implicationsIndividuals, companies as well as society in general are becoming more and more dependent on increasingly complex technical systems. Moreover, failure of these complex systems often causes a major loss of service with potentially serious consequences (i.e. critical risk). Thus their dependability with its facets such as reliability, availability, safety has become an important issue. For example, the ability of reliability/availability assessment of such systems is invaluable in industrial domains. Indeed reliability/availability assessment is used for various purposes such as maintenance strategy selection, maintenance planning, production planning, risk and cost evaluations. To face with this complexity, the existing analytical models are not well adapted to carry out system modelling and assessment due mainly to assumptions that are difficult to validate. This paper looks into this issue by proposing a generic approach based on Monte Carlo (stochastic) simulation.Originality/valueThe Monte Carlo simulation method allows one to consider various relevant aspects of systems operation that cannot be easily captured by analytical models. The utilisation of this method is growing for the assessment of overall plants availability and the monetary value of plant operation.