Abstract
Abstract A rational approach is developed for prediction of failure risk or probability of survival of structure components. In the proposed model there are three possible failure modes during any given life cycle of a member of the population. The risk of failure for each mode is derived and the combined total risk is determined as a function of time (or number of load applications). The effects of various inspection schemes on the risk of failure are then investigated. As an example, the probability of failure of a pipe segment containing a defect is evaluated during its service life. An inspection strategy is then outlined whereby the total risk of failure at any time is kept below a predetermined value.
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