A stochastic epidemic model for the dynamics and control of maize streak disease

Abstract

ABSTRACT Maize is an essential staple food crop and is vulnerable to diseases. Maize streak disease is one of the serious illnesses that affect maize, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where the disease is endemic. We developed a stochastic epidemic model with three control measure types (mechanical, chemical and preventative) that mitigate the disease. A dynamical system analysis of the deterministic version of the model is provided. The probability of maize streak disease extinction or persistence is determined using the theory of a multi-type branching process. Using these results, the degrees to which these control measures are effective in reducing maize streak disease are considered. It is shown that chemical and mechanical control measures, preferably together, are better than preventive controls in reducing disease prevalence. However, considering the possible negative effects of a chemical control, it is shown that sufficient mechanical control combined with a small degree of each of preventative and chemical control could be the most viable strategy to limit maize streak disease.