A Statistical Approach for Assessment of Growth Rate and Instability of Wheat in Selected States of India

The study examined the trends in area, production and yields of wheat in India over the period of 1970-12 and ascertained the status of India in the world market of production and export of wheat from 1996-12. Data were collected from the official website of FAO and “Land use statistics” (India) and analyzed using mean, compound growth rates and instability index. The results revealed that the annual growth rates in production and yield of wheat increased significantly during the pre-WTO period but had dropped marginally during the post-WTO. The post-WTO period on the other hand had shown a recognizably least instability index in area, production and yield of wheat but yield had shown higher instability in the overall and pre-WTO periods. On overall, India had shown a significant growth in the production of wheat but had fallen short in export market. The compound growth rate in the export over the selected period showed a very high negative growth rate as well as instability index in both export and import markets.

The study measured the change and instability in area, production, and yield of two major cereal crops wheat and maize in Bangladesh based on secondary data during 1980/81-2003/04 using different statistical techniques. Area and production of wheat increased satisfactorily. But yield was not increased to meet the demand of the country. In the case of maize, significant increment happened in yield during the study period. Area and production of maize also increased to fulfill the increasing demand of population. Presently production of maize increased more rapidly than its area. The growth in area, production, and yield of wheat slightly improved in period-II, whereas the growth rate in area, production, and yield of maize improved rapidly. Though both of wheat and maize are unstable crops, maize showed very instability in its area and production because of its increasing tendency in the recent years. Key Words: Change and instability, production, wheat, maize. doi:10.3329/bjar.v33i3.1600 Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 33(3) : 409-417, September 2008

An attempt has made to compare the growth and instability of wheat crop pre and post Green Revolution in Rajasthan. It was found that growth of wheat area and production was significant statistical during 1963–72, 1973–82 and 2003–12. The highest growth of wheat production and productivity was 9.97 and 5.73 percent per annum during 1963–72 due to introduction of high yielding variety programme. Instability analysis indicated that wheat area was more stable than production and productivity. Instability of wheat production was highest during 1963–72 and lowest during 2003–12. The growth in area, production and yield during Green Revolution were 1.55, 4.23, and 2.63 percent, respectively, as against the pre-Green Revolution of-1.37, -2.09, and-0.72 percent. The coefficient of variation which is the indicator of instability, for area production and yield of wheat was higher in post-Green Revolution than pre-Green Revolution. Thus, policies should be made to reduce the risk in wheat production and more efforts are needed to ensure food and nutritional security put forth by the burgeoning population.

Forecasting of wheat production in Haryana using hybrid time series model

The study has analyzed the trends in area, production and yield of wheat of the Punjab state. The study was based on time series data collected from the Statistical Abstract of Punjab for a period of 61 years from 1950–51 to 2010–11. The study period has been divided into three periods: Period-I, 1950–51 to 1965–66, represents the Pre-Green revolution period, Period-II,1966–67 to 1985–86, represents the Green revolution period and Period-III, 1986–87 to 2010–11, is the Post-Green Revolution period. The share of wheat in the total cropped area has increased from 29.59 per cent in 1960–61 to 44.53 per cent in the year 2010–11. The superior varieties’ of wheat introduced during the Green revolution, relative profitability of this crop with minimum production and marketing risks as compared to other crops could be the reason for this sharp increase. The comparison of all periods revealed that Period-II had the highest growth rates of area (3.06%), production (6.24%) and yield (3.15%). The decomposition analysis of growth suggests that yield effect was the major source of growth in Period-I, II and III. For the overall study period, interaction of area and yield (47.72%) was the major contributor to production. Variability in area and yield was the cause for high variability pronounced in production.

Policy makers, government planners and agricultural market participants in Pakistan require accurate and timely information about wheat yield and production. Punjab Province is by far the most important wheat producing region in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the provincial government requires significant amounts of time before official reports can be released. Several studies have shown that wheat yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we developed a methodology for estimating wheat yield and area for Punjab Province from freely available Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery approximately six weeks before harvest. Wheat yield was derived by regressing reported yield values against time series of four different peak-season MODIS-derived vegetation indices. We also tested deriving wheat area from the same MODIS time series using a regression-tree approach. Among the four evaluated indices, WDRVI provided more consistent and accurate yield forecasts compared to NDVI, EVI2 and saturation-adjusted normalized difference vegetation index (SANDVI). The lowest RMSE values at the district level for forecast versus reported yield were found when using six or more years of training data. Forecast yield for the 2007/2008 to 2012/2013 growing seasons were within 0.2% and 11.5% of final reported values. Absolute deviations of wheat area and production forecasts from reported values were slightly greater compared to using the previous year's or the three- or six-year moving average values, implying that 250-m MODIS data does not provide sufficient spatial resolution for providing improved wheat area and production forecasts.

The main focus of the study was to analyze trends and variability of wheat crop in Pakistan. Semi-log trend model was used to find trends and growth rate in area, yield and production of wheat crop whereas the variability was measured by Cuddy-Della Valle index of variability. The findings of the study illustrate that wheat area in Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan was increased over the time whereas cultivated area of wheat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was marginally decreased during 1981-85 to 2011-15. The results show that there was substantial increase in wheat yield and production in all four provinces of Pakistan. The increase in wheat yield may due to the adoption of new varieties of wheat in the country over the time. It was also concluded from the results that area and yield of wheat in Baluchistan recorded the highest degree of variability whereas in Punjab province area and yield of wheat crop were noticed the lowest degree of variability. Similarly, the maximum variability in wheat production was recorded for Baluchistan province followed by Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab. Mostly the variability in wheat production was due to the variability in wheat area and their yield.

Food security as a major social concern and a global threat, requires better policy decisions based on empirical studies. This work presents a comparative statistical analysis of different methods to forecast wheat area, productivity, production, and population growth rate in Pakistan. Time series data from 1950 to 2020 were analyzed using various methods such as ARIMA, the compound growth exponential regression model (CGREM), Cuddy Della Valle instability index (CDVI), and decomposition analysis. The results show that CGREM performs better than other models. Periodic compound growth rates indicate that wheat area and yield decrease by about 67.0% and 40.0%, while the population decreases by 31.7%. For the period 2001-2020, the compound growth reaches the level of 0.60% for wheat area, 1.21% for yield, while it is high for the population and amounts to 2.22%. The overall compound growth rate for wheat area and yield (about 1.207%, 2.326%) is lower compared to the population (about 2.839%). The paper presents forecasts for wheat area, yield, and population in Pakistan will rise: 12.7%, 25.5%, 31.8% in 2030 and 43%, 97.8%, and 129% in 2050. The results of this study provide empirical evidence for the necessity of policy decisions addressing the problem of food security in Pakistan.

Abstract. This study was conducted to understand the changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of wheat crop production including the changes in area and yield. We employed the emerging hot and cold spot analysis along with space time cube and space-time cluster density analysis to study the spatial changes in wheat crop production, area and yield, and understand the changes in spatiotemporal features. We made a comprehensive analysis of the changes in wheat crop production, area and yield on pan India basis for the period from 1999 to 2015. The major findings were: (a) During the study period significant increase in wheat yield occurred within the North Indian states of Punjab and Haryana and intensifying hot spots appeared within the Indo-Gangetic plains. (b) The Analysis of the area under wheat cultivation showed a persistent hot spot in the Northern states of Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, with new hot spots observed in the regions of Central India during the years 2014 and 2015. (d) The analysis of the wheat crop production showed significant new cold spots in Rajasthan and Gujarat, with intensifying hotspots emanating into the lower delta regions of Ganges. Present study also revealed the potential of GIS based data models when related with additional background information, to segregate the most significant clusters of changes (increase / decrease) happening over active wheat crop cultivation. We expect the results from this study to help in increasing the wheat crop yield and production in the future.

The present study was conducted with a view to analyze growth and trend in area, production and yield of major crops of Bangladesh. The scope of this study was to determine/ assess the growth pattern in the context of total cultivable area, gross production and yield rate which has been followed by some economically important crops of our country such as rice, wheat, pulse, rape and mustard, jute, sugarcane & tea. Collecting time series data from 1969-74 to 2004-2009 (40 years) of those crops from reliable source and using semi-log trend function here the researchers tried to find out the trend and estimate the growth rate of area, production and yield of the above mentioned crops. The compound growth rate as well as trend analysis indicated that the production of rice during 1969-74 to 2004-09 was increased due to the corresponding increase in per hectare yield of rice crop in Bangladesh. The results show that area, production and yield of wheat was increased over the time the reason is that more area was brought under wheat production except the year 2004-2009. It was revealed from the results that area, production and yield of pulse were increased over the time. The results shows that area, production and yield of rape and mustard was increasing a rate of 1.21 percent, 2.33 percent and 1.11 percent per annum, respectively, whereas, the area, production and yield of jute was decreasing. It was revealed from the analysis that the trend co-efficient of area, production and yield of sugarcane and tea was positive.

The examined the relative change in area, production and productivity of major foodgrain crops (paddy, sorghum, maize, pigeonpea, black gram, green gram, wheat, chickpea, peas and lentil) in Vidisha district of Madhya Pradesh. The relative change in area of green gram was noticed highest and wheat was observed lowest, although sorghum, maize, lentil and chickpea were observed negative. The relative change in production of paddy was highest as compared to other food grains, although sorghum and maize were found negative. The variability in area, production and productivity of paddy was highest as compared to other food grains. The growth rates in area of paddy, green gram, black gram, pigeonpea, wheat were observed positive and highly significant. The growth rates in area of sorghum, maize, lentil were noticed negative and highly significant. The growth rate in production of wheat, pigeonpea, black gram, and green gram were positive and highly significant while growth rate in production of sorghum was found negative and highly significant. The growth rate in productivity of paddy, wheat, black gram and lentil were found positive and highly significant

Growth and Yield Performance of Selected Wheat Genotypes at Variable Irrigation Management

Paddy, maize and wheat occupy the maximum share in terms of area and production of Nepalese agriculture and plays major role in food and nutrition security in Nepal. Although government has been investing in cereal production since 1960s and there is a slow and steady growth in area, production and yield. In this scenario, there is dearth of research studies which provides overview of the growth and instability of the cereal crops, and it is also necessary to identify the causes of the growth in production. This paper tries to address the fore mentioned issue by measuring the growth rate and instability in area, production and yield of paddy, wheat and maize in Nepal for 30 years ranging from 1990/91 to 2019/20. Similarly, it also attempts to identify the cause of growth crops by using decomposition method. It is found that there was significant growth in area of paddy only in period I; and in production and yield in period II and overall time period. In wheat and maize, it is found that there is statistically significant increase in the area, production and yield in all the sub periods and over all time periods, except for area in wheat in period III. Similarly, it is found that in all the crops studied, greater extent of instability was observed in production, followed by the yield. And, in all the crops, area effect is higher than yield and interaction effect in all the time periods and whole study time frame. Int. J. Soc. Sc. Manage. Vol. 9, Issue-1: 13-18.

Information about agricultural trends can help policymakers identify strategies that will result in a sustained rise in food output. The present investigation has been undertaken to study the Growth, Trend and Instability in Area, Production and Productivity of Wheat Crop in Chhattisgarh Plains. Time series data for wheat were collected for the period (1990-91 to 2014-15). The linear, quadratic and exponential functions are fitted in order to analyse the trend in area, production and productivity of wheat crop. Besides these compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, instability index of area, production and productivity of this crop have also been recorded. In the entire Chhattisgarh Plains, the average compound growth rate for wheat area is (0.41%). Dhamtari District has the lowest compound growth rate (-8.22%) while Raigarh District has the highest (3.4%) under wheat-growing areas. The negative growth rate under area of wheat in Dhamtari district is causing a switch from winter wheat to summer rice. The average compound growth rate of wheat production across the entire Chhattisgarh Plains is positive (2.42%), which is a good indicator of the rising trend in wheat production in the Chhattisgarh Plains. The highest compound growth rate of wheat production is found in Kawardha District (7.62%), while the lowest is in Dhamtari District (-4.33%).The average compound growth rate for wheat productivity across the entire Chhattisgarh Plains is (1.51%), with Kawardha District having the highest rate (5.00%) and Raigarh District having the lowest (0.60%).

Although accurate forecasting of the production of major cereal crops is important to make policy decisions related to their supply, demand and import/export, very little work has been done in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to develop the best performing trend models for area, production, and yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), teff [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter], and maize (Zea mays L.) in Ethiopia, and to provide forecasts for 2019 to 2023. For each crop, the best-performing model was selected among linear, quadratic, exponential growth, and S-curve trend models using five performance measures (mean absolute percent error [MAPE], mean absolute deviation [MAD], mean squared deviation [MSD], coefficient of efficiency [E], and index of agreement [d]). Quadratic trend model was the best for area of wheat and teff, production of wheat, teff, and maize, and wheat and maize yields. S-curve and Linear trend models were the best for area of maize and yield of teff, respectively. Forecasts for 2019 to 2023 using the best-performing model revealed that cultivated area for these three cereals will decrease by 3,581 ha in Ethiopia, but their combined total production will increase by 4,896,630 tons, and productivity of wheat, teff, and maize will increase by 20.3%, 13.2%, and 13.8%, respectively, which is slightly higher than the projected population growth (10.9%) during this time. Although these results indicate that Ethiopia is on track to meet the second SDG, government policymakers and other stakeholders can use these findings to ensure sustainable food and nutrition security in Ethiopia.