Abstract
Increasing the power grid peak in the summer time causes power outages in industries and residential areas in Iran. The most obvious example of this issue is the power outages in the summer of 2018. Management of the demand-side is the most important strategy to reduce the grid peak due to the high cost of the development of the power plant capacity (500$ per kilowatt). In the present study, the effect of behavioral parameters in decreasing the power grid peak was identified. The behavioral simulation was done as an agent-based model using the raw data of the time-use survey (TUS) of the Statistics Center of Iran. 4228 urban households were surveyed, and the quality of people’s behavior was determined in each time step of 15 minutes during the day and night with 2 deterministic and stochastic approaches. In the stochastic approach, the Markov chain method was used. It showed that the power grid peak can only be reduced by 10% with behavioral flexibility and up to 25% by upgrading technology. In addition, based on the power deficit in 2018, 2000 megawatts of solar power capacity must be added to the network at peak times to meet grid demand.
Highlights
Air conditioning) AC) is capable of saving lives during warm weather and has a major contribution to peak electricity demand during summer time
From 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., the behavioral flexibility potential of household cooling energy consumption is between 70 and 134 Maximum difference with load (MW), which is approximately equal to 10% of the cooling peak of Tehran’s electricity grid
As the efficiency of cooling technologies increases, the average cooling load in all comfort temperature scenarios decreases between 250 and 400 MW, and up to 25% of the network peak is reduced compared to the base scenario
Summary
Air conditioning) AC) is capable of saving lives during warm weather and has a major contribution to peak electricity demand during summer time. AC demand in Madrid, Spain, encompassed one-third of overall peak consumption in June 2008 [3] In such countries as Singapore or most of those in the Middle East, which have completely yearround cooling demands, the AC contribution to peak loads can be as large as 50% or higher [3]. Application of ACs and electric fans for staying cool comprises approximately 20% of overall electricity, which is currently utilized in buildings worldwide [4, 5]. Such a tendency starts to develop as the focus of global economic and demographic development is toward hotter countries. It is noteworthy that in 2020, the grid peak occurred at night, which indicates that the behavior of the energy consumption is changed and the peak hours are changed from day to night
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