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A Small Quarterly Projection Model for a Selected Group of CEE Economies

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Abstract
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The monetary policy decision process is fundamental to achieving price stability and sustainable economic growth over the medium term. In recent years, given the multitude of unprecedented shocks that hit the global economy, many complex models still need to estimate accurately the magnitude of these shocks and their impact on economic activity. This paper proposes a small quarterly projection model to assess the economic outlook for a selected group of Central Eastern European countries with similar economic characteristics. Therefore, we present a comparable analysis between Hungary, Poland and Romania for 2005Q4-2023Q4. Our results suggest a relatively good performance regarding the assessment of the economic downturn from 2020 and a similar recovery pattern in Hungary and Poland, while the recovery in Romania was only partial. A real-time forecasting exercise ensures that the trajectory of macroeconomic indicators is close to the actual data, especially during regular times.

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  • Inna Irtyshcheva + 2 more

Introduction. The strategic goals of our state's development for the period up to 2030 are to improve nutrition, promote sustainable agricultural development, and promote progressive, inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The solution of certain goals is possible due to organic production and the formation of a resource-saving model of sustainable economic growth. That is why the formation of sustainable economic growth on the basis of organic production and resource-saving model is quite relevant in modern conditions. The aim of the article is to form sustainable economic growth on the basis of organic production and resource-saving model. Results. It is proved that the concept of sustainable development is given to sustainable land use and agricultural production. It is determined that in order to achieve the sustainability of the world community, agriculture was given, as now, a special role: it must, together with the relevant service infrastructure to compensate for the dominance of industrial production and ensure social and economic development and environmental protection. Conclusions. It is substantiated that sustainable economic growth should be considered as a process of forming a holistic system that includes factors of economic, environmental and social orientation and ultimately creates the conditions for effective provision of both food needs and a favorable living environment in rural areas on the basis of self-reproduction and resource conservation. It is determined that sustainable economic growth is formed on the basis of balanced production potential, reproduction of means of production, sustainable growth of food industry, balanced use of nature, reproduction of natural resources of future generations, raising the level of rural areas, reproduction of resources. Keywords: sustainable economic growth, resource-saving model, organic production, agricultural production.

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