A Simulation Model for Estimating Knock-on Delay of Taiwan Regional Railway

Abstract

Line capacity of a railway system is affected by many factors and one of the most important factors is the knock-on delay (delay propagation). The knock-on delay of trains usually caused by route conflicts, prolonged alighting and boarding times of passengers and other exogenous delays in railway operations. To clarify the impacts of these complicated factors on knock-on delay and their interactions, this research develops a comprehensive simulation model to deal with the related problems. A rail section from Cidu to Shulin of Taiwan regional railway is selected for validation of the model. Furthermore, Keelung-Hsinchu section is selected for case study. The result shows that the proposed model can be used in practice for estimating the knock-on delay. The model can be further extended to analyze the impacts on knock-on delay for all kinds of changes in infrastructures, operational situations and controlling strategies.