A simulation-based approach for assessing regional and industrial flood vulnerability using mixed-MRIO model: A case study of Hubei Province, China

Abstract

Given the unstoppable forces behind regional economic integration trends, damages from a flood disaster in a specific area will influence correlative cities through industrial linkages and make economic systems more vulnerable. Assessing urban vulnerability is an essential part of flood prevention and mitigation, and also a hot topic of recent research. Therefore, this study (1) constructed a mixed multiregional input-output (mixed-MRIO) model to explore ripple effects on other regions and sectors when production in a flooded area is constrained, and (2) applied this model to characterize the economic vulnerability of cities and sectors in Hubei Province, China by simulation. First, various hypothetical flood disaster scenarios are simulated to reveal the ripple effects of different events. The composite vulnerability is assessed by analyzing economic-loss sensitivity rankings across scenarios. Then, the model is applied to the case of a 50-year return period flood that occurred in Enshi City, Hubei Province, on July 17, 2020 to empirically verify the usefulness of such a simulation-based approach in evaluating vulnerability. The results indicate vulnerability is higher in Wuhan City, Yichang City, and Xiangyang City and for three manufacturing sector types: livelihood-related manufacturing, raw materials manufacturing, and processing and assembly manufacturing. Such cities and industrial sectors with high vulnerability will significantly benefit from prioritization in flood management.