Abstract

Due to high cost and technical uncertainty of recovery processes, predictive models developed for CO 2 miscible flooding processes should be used to evaluate the production performance of projects. This study presents the reservoir simulation study and probabilistic cash flow analysis of CO 2 miscible flooding projects in West Virginia. An extended black oil reservoir simulator was used in this study. Historical data and information from a CO 2 injection pilot in Granny's Creek Field of Clay County in West Virginia were used. A history match was done, and then alterative matched cases were run, such as pure CO 2 injection and water-alternate-gas (WAG) injection. A PC-based probabilistic cash flow analysis (PCFA) model was developed to analze the economic evaluation of the CO 2 miscible flooding project on a popular spreadsheet. Statistical analysis of the results shows: (1) the WAG case is more profitable than the pure CO 2 injection case; (2) the pure CO 2 injection case and the WAG case are more economical than the base case. Therefore, given current oil prices, the CO 2 processes have a higher potential to succeed in tec technical aspects but not in economical aspects. This study initiates the adaptation of the model to specific parameters of West Virginia oil fields. The newly formulated microcomputer PCFA model overcomes some of the problems commonly found in the conventional Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, the simulation approach in economic assessment and risk analysis can be readily adopted in future projects.

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