Abstract
Safety analysis in guided transportation systems is essential to avoid rare but potentially catastrophic accidents. This article presents a quantitative probabilistic model that integrates Safety Integrity Levels (SIL) for evaluating the safety of such systems. The standardized SIL indicator allows the safety requirements of each safety subsystem, function and/or piece of equipment to be specified, making SILs pivotal parameters in safety evaluation. However, different interpretations of SIL exist, and faced with the complexity of guided transportation systems, the current SIL allocation methods are inadequate for the task of safety assessment. To remedy these problems, the model developed in this paper seeks to verify, during the design phase of guided transportation system, whether or not the safety specifications established by the transport authorities allow the overall safety target to be attained (i.e., if the SIL allocated to the different safety functions are sufficient to ensure the required level of safety). To meet this objective, the model is based both on the operating situation concept and on Monte Carlo simulation. The former allows safety systems to be formalized and their dynamics to be analyzed in order to show the evolution of the system in time and space, and the latter make it possible to perform probabilistic calculations based on the scenario structure obtained.
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