A Short-term solar irradiance forecasting modelling approach based on three decomposition algorithms and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

In this study, a case study of four Indian cities i.e. Ajmer, Jaipur, Jodhpur and Kota in the state of Rajasthan are considered wherein 30 min ahead data have been obtained via the data site of the National Institute of Wind Energy and Wind Resource (NIWE) on which a proposed Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) prediction technique for all seasons is applied. Here, data has been pre-processed using three different signal decomposition algorithms in parallel i.e. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Further, based on Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC), corresponding IMFs & corresponding Residual obtained using the three decomposition algorithms are compared amongst each other respectively and that corresponding IMFs & corresponding Residual are chosen for signal reconstruction which are having highest correlation coefficient values. Thereafter, these selected IMFs and Residual from each algorithm are combined to form single input. In this way, three inputs formed from three decomposition algorithms based on the PCC values are fed to Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for solar irradiance forecasting. The proposed technique shows significantly higher accurate results with less than 2% MAPE for different seasons considered at the site locations considered. Further, it terms of performance, the proposed technique is found to be independent of site location.