A review on biogas production as the alternative source of fuel

The security of natural gas supply is not only an important part of China's energy security, it also serves as a basic guarantee for China to achieve its dual carbon target and energy transition. Therefore, it is very important to conduct research on the security of China's natural gas supply and demand in the context of the dual carbon target. This paper develops a system dynamics (SD) model for natural gas demand forecasting and a generalized Weng's model for production forecasting to predict China's natural gas demand and production under different scenarios during 2022-2060, and then analyzes China's natural gas supply and demand situation and potential import and external dependence based on the forecast results. The simulation results show that (1) under the two demand scenarios D1 and D2, China's natural gas demand will peak at 766.02 billion m3 in 2046 and 708.07 billion m3 in 2036 and decline to 521.65 billion m3 and 278.99 billion m3 in 2060 respectively; (2) under the two production scenarios S1 and S2, China's natural gas production will peak at 344.581 billion m3 in 2042 and 366.341 billion m3 in 2043 and decrease to about 250 billion m3 in 2060; (3) before 2035, the security of natural gas supply in China will face a challenging situation, the total volume of potential gas imports will gradually increase to about 350 billion m3, and China's dependence on natural gas imports will exceed 50%; after 2035, the progress of China's energy transition will improve the security of its natural gas supply. This paper proposes four recommendations for expanding gas demand in the near to medium term, promoting conventional and unconventional gas production, diversifying import channels and building emergency reserves to ensure China's gas supply security and enable gas to play a "bridging" role in the energy transition.

Abstract: In the aftermath of recent natural gas and oil supply disruptions to European markets, Russia's long-term supply stability and Europe's natural gas market developments are of utmost concern to both the producer and the consumer. As Europe's indigenous supply declines, it will rely more on gas imports. Concurrently, Russia's domestic gas consumption is growing, its infrastructure continues to age, and Gazprom will continue to rely on both Central Asian imports and growth from independent gas producers to meet its long-term supply commitments. This article discusses a medium-term outlook for Russia and the European Union and outlines the barriers that are inhibiting competition and collaboration in the energy sphere. Keywords: competition, energy markets, energy security, European Union, natural gas, oil, Russia ********** In the past year, the security of natural gas supplies has emerged as one of the top issues of concern for countries in Europe, for the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and even for the United States. Concerns about natural gas security reflect uncertainty about available natural gas supplies, how supplies are delivered to the market (by pipeline or by liquefied natural gas tanker), and how much is paid for these supplies. In the aftermath of natural gas and oil supply shutoffs from Russia, Europe is trying to ensure its own security of supply through diversification and energy efficiency. Russia is trying to ensure energy security by diversifying its customer base, investing in the entire value chain (not only the upstream), and ensuring adequate investment levels both in its own energy supplies and those of its Central Asian neighbors. The way in which the policies of regional and international organizations differ from the policies of individual states is hampering progress on energy market liberalization and energy efficiency programs, both of which are necessary to achieve stable market relationships between producers and consumers. To accurately frame the policy debate, one must understand the current and future role that natural gas plays for Europe's energy mix. Europe's demand for natural gas is increasing and Russia is the region's main supplier. However, Russia's ability to invest in upstream natural gas development over the next several years will directly contribute to Russia's natural gas production growth and Europe's security of supply. In the meantime, several alternative energy sources and hedging instruments are expected to mitigate Europe's dependency. For the region to best take advantage of these options, continued regional natural gas market liberalization is necessary. Europe and Russia's Natural Gas Interdependence In 2006, Europe depended on Russia for 34 percent of its natural gas imports, including European LNG imports (see figure 1). In contrast, Russia depended on Europe for 60 percent of its natural gas exports, sending the remainder via pipeline to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), predominantly Ukraine and Belarus. (1) In evaluating Europe's true dependency on Russian natural gas imports, it is essential to understand the role that it plays in the total energy mix. In the decade after the mid-1990s, oil's share in Europe's primary energy consumption fell by around 3 percentage points while natural gas's share increased by twice this amount, to around 24 percent of final consumption. On the one hand, Europe's natural gas consumption growth could slow in the future. Since the mid-1990s, EU demand for natural gas has been growing at a rate of around 4 percent per year. (2) The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that, over the next several years, the EU's demand for natural gas will grow at a slightly lower rate, by around 0.8 to 1 percent per year between 2004 and 2015. (3) Even though the growth rate is expected to slow in the next several years, as figure 2 shows, Europe's natural gas import dependency is still more than 30 percent higher today than it was only a decade ago. …

This paper contains a micro econometric analysis of household electricity and natural gas demand for a cross section of 2,885 Danish households observed in 1996. The sample includes fulltime employed couples in single-family houses. The specification of the model is guided by an explorative nonparametric data analysis. The analysis reveals, among other things, the fairly surprising result that demand for heating is unaffected by the number of children in the household. The dependence between demand for gas and demand for electricity is examined in the paper. This is done by testing for separability of demand for gas from demand for electricity, and vice versa. Separability of electricity (gas) from gas (electricity) is tested by estimating demand for electricity (gas) conditional on demand for gas (electricity). The model allows for endogeneity of the conditional variable. Building regulations and individual time variation, that is panel data, identify the test. The test indicates that demand for electricity is separable from demand for natural gas, and that demand for natural gas is separable from demand for electricity. The result of the test is evidence in favour of single equation modelling of household energy demand in this context.

Climate change will affect the demand of many resources that households consume, including electricity and natural gas. Although price is considered an effective tool for controlling demand for many resources that households consume, including electricity and natural gas, there is disagreement about the exact magnitude of the price elasticity. Part of the problem is that demand is confounded by block pricing and the interrelated consumption of electricity and natural gas, which prevent easy estimation of price impacts. Block pricing suggests that the purchaser controls the marginal price of a commodity by the quantity purchased, turning price into an endogenous variable. Interrelated consumption indicates that demand for one resource is affected by the price of another. These complications have made difficult the estimation of the price elasticity of demand for resources and consequently the household-level impact of climate change, which will affect resource supplies. This paper evaluates statistical tools for estimating the joint demand for natural gas and electricity when both resources face a block price setting and develops estimates of own and cross price elasticity. We use data from the Federal Residential Energy Consumption Survey, along with utility price data, to estimate the household demand for electricity and natural gas in California as separate commodities. We then use a joint estimation procedure to evaluate the household demand for natural gas and electricity. Finally, we evaluate the degree to which block pricing and interrelated demand affect the price elasticity of demand for the two resources. The paper ends by noting the continuing uncertainty surrounding the use of price to manage household demand for electricity and natural gas.

Towards energy security by promoting circular economy: A holistic approach

Methane emissions along biomethane and biogas supply chains are underestimated

The security of natural gas supply and demand has always been an important topic, and as a result, analyzing and predicting the supply and demand of natural gas has received considerable attention from researchers. Numerous studies have extensively researched the supply and demand of natural gas. The main purpose of this study is to explore the supply‐demand balance mechanism for natural gas security. A system dynamics model is constructed to assess the supply and demand of natural gas in Sichuan Province, China. A new system dynamics model based on domestic gas, production gas, ecological environment and natural gas supply is proposed. The study considers four scenarios: natural development, economic priority development, environmental priority development and coordinated development. The results show that the rapid economic development has led to an excessive environmental carrying capacity, a larger gap between natural gas supply and demand, a decline in the quality of life of residents, and even affected the energy security of Sichuan Province and China. The findings also show that people's overprotection of the environment can lead to slow economic development, which prevents it from achieving its desired goals. The coordinated development scenario in this paper not only ensures the production of natural gas and the quality of life of residents, but also is an optimal scheme with low energy consumption and pollution. According to the research conclusions, considering the overall situation of China's energy security and the situation in Sichuan Province, the author proposes reforms from the supply and demand sides of natural gas.

Studying the security status of China's natural gas supply and proposing a feasible coping strategy for enhancing that security is of great significance. This paper from the security of supply, demand and market security three dimensions to build China's natural gas supply and demand of security evaluation index system, and index evaluation criteria according to the I (poor), II (medium), III (better), was analyzed by using the set pair analysis model between 2006 and 2017, China's natural gas supply and demand of security evolution trend. The research shows that the overall security index of natural gas supply and demand in China from 2000 to 2017 shows a trend of first rising and then falling, the correlation between China's natural gas supply and demand security index and the optimal evaluation set III fluctuates from 0.16 in 2006 to 0.34 in 2009 and then to 0.22 in 2017. Finally, we put forward some policy implications to ensure the security of natural gas supply and demand in China from the perspectives of natural gas supply, efficiency and market.

Although the global energy demand varies from country to country, it is constantly increasing on a global scale. As per IEA’s projections, the usage of two energy sources will increase (renewable with 12% and natural gas with 28%) in the global energy demand until 2040. In the study, 48 number of experts/managers (Decision Makers-DM) working in the energy sector were interviewed to establish/determine 10 main criteria and 43 sub-criteria used in demand scenarios. In the study, fuzzy multi-objective mathematical model (by using fuzzy AHP, and fuzzy TOPSIS) is developed to calculate World's and Turkey’s natural gas demand under high and low demand scenarios. By the help of model, the usage of natural gas amount in World by regions between 2020 and 2030 is calculated. In Scenario-High it will increase by approx. 26 % between 2020 and 2030 and reached 4.800 bcm in 2040. In Scenario-Low it will increase by approx. 5 % from 2020 to 2030 and reached 4.000 bcm in 2030. It is the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2030 since it is clean energy source. In Scenario-High natural gas demand by region is calculated/projected as follows: in 2030 North America 1250 bcm, Central and South America 250 bcm, Europe 650 bcm, Middle East 750 bcm, Eurasia 650 bcm, Asia Pacific 1250 bcm. In the study, under the high demand scenario it has been calculated that the usage of natural gas in Turkey will increase by 52% between 2020 and 2030 and reach approximately 76 bcm, and in the low demand scenario Turkey's total natural gas demand will decrease by approximately 9% and reach approximately 45 bcm. In the study by using Fuzzy TOPSIS method, 10 number of sectors are examined and “Energy sector” was the first and “Industry sector” was the second in the ranking of the sectors in terms of global and Turkey’s natural gas demand scenario. In the study, the usage of natural gas is the only fossil resource that is expected to increase in the global energy mix among fossil fuels in 2030. This is due to high reserve amount of natural gas, i.e. global conventional natural gas reserves with 206 trillion m3 and unconventional unexplored natural gas reserves with 354 trillion m3, and as well as being a clean and environmental-friendly energy source. Since it is a clean fossil fuel and it pollutes nature & air much less than other fossil fuels and has a minimum greenhouse gas emission amount compared to other fossil sources.

Energy is one of the hottest topics in contemporary politics. The extreme importance of energy for modern life is undeniable. Energy maintains our standard of living and is the basis of economic performance. Currently, we take it for granted that energy is available whenever we want it. Demand for energy will continue to increase as long as the global economy grows and average living standards rise. The most reliable predictions indicate that by 2050, the world’s population will have nearly doubled from its present level, rising from around six billion to roughly ten billion people. This will certainly result in increasing import dependence, higher prices, and uncertainty of energy supply. In recent years, we have witnessed a resurgence of interest in energy security that goes well beyond the stability and predictability of prices, commercial arrangements, and infrastructure projects. Energy security is recognized as an integral part of the OSCE’s comprehensive concept of security. In this respect, the topic is at the top of the political agenda of OSCE participating States, as it underpins not only their economic growth, but also their ability to alleviate poverty, improve social welfare, and secure their political independence. This has occurred in parallel with the emergence of a number of new threats and challenges that bring in numerous factors to be taken into account when shaping national and multilateral strategies. For the next twenty years, fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy use, accounting for some 85 per cent of the increase of world primary demand. Oil will remain the most widely used fuel, even though its percentage share will fall marginally. Demand for natural gas will grow in the immediate future. Interregional trade is expanding strongly all over the world, particularly with the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This development will strengthen the role of transit countries while creating a particular role for maritime hub countries Governments are facing new challenges regarding their energy policies. Things have changed since the first energy crisis. We can no longer be certain that the existing national energy policies will provide secure access to energy resources, accommodate increasing demand for energy and growing energy dependence, and protect against energy depletion. Current economic and environmental conditions oblige us to look for regional and even global solutions to long-term energy security challenges based on renewable, efficient, and ecologically sound technologies. To achieve this

Effectively addressing today’s energy challenges requires advanced technologies along with policies that influence economic markets while advancing the public good.

Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model

Policy selection based on China's natural gas security evaluation and comparison

There exists the possibility of interfuel substitution in the generation of electrical energy. The responsiveness of the demand for various fuels by electric utilities given this economic fact is investigated. Using regionally disaggregated data, the results indicate that the responsiveness of the demand for coal, oil, and natural gas by electric utilities to relative price changes is not significant. It is argued that fuel adjustment clauses are responsible for this observation. As expected, the demand for natural gas increases as the level of economic activity expands. Most interesting is the negative response of the demand for natural gas by electric utilities to changes in weather conditions. It is suggested that the reason for this observation is that electric utilities, based on current regulatory practices, are among the first to be curtailed should any supply shortfall occur, given prevailing market conditions.

Natural gas stands out among fossil fuels because it is relatively cleaner. It is also an important energy source type for several fields such as electricity production, industry, and heating, etc. Due to the poor capacity of Turkey in terms of natural gas sources, the demand is supplied by producer countries. Hence, accurate forecasting for the demand is of critical importance for Turkey, which imports 99% of its natural gas consumption. In the current literature about demand forecasting, most studies were conducted on an annual basis. However, the seasonal effect on the demand for natural gas cannot be foreseen through annual studies. Besides, to deal with some situations such as seasonal balancing, peak shaving, and gas supply shortage in monthly demand, forecasting models that capture the seasonal trend are needed. Therefore, in this study, a new grey seasonal forecast model has been presented and Turkey’s monthly natural gas demand was predicted via the proposed model. Performance of that model was compared with SGM(1,1) and SARIMA (p,d,q) x (P,D,Q)s. The obtained results show the superiority of the proposed model. By using this model, Turkey’s monthly natural gas demand was forecasted up until the year 2025. The proposed model allows us to capture seasonal patterns more successfully. In case this seasonal behavior continues, Turkey’s natural gas demand is expected to increase by %20 until 2025. At this point, the outcomes of the study provide important information to decision-makers to be able to determine reliable and stable energy policies.