Abstract
This paper discusses the uncertainties that exist in estimating the remaining ultimately recoverable resources of oil globally including the reasons for these and, where possible, how they may be mitigated, resolved, or reduced in future assessments. The encompassing and ambiguous terms ‘conventional oil’ and ‘unconventional oil’ are disaggregated into the numerous categories of oil that exist within each. These categories are investigated individually in order to identify the specific uncertainties by which they are influenced and affected. A key finding is that there are intrinsic uncertainties within every category of oil. Future assessments of global oil resources and projections of oil production should hence acknowledge these issues, explain or assess the effects that they have on results, and present ranges in any estimates produced or provided. An initial estimate is made of the technically recoverable resources of the light tight oil often called ‘shale oil’: oil found in low permeability shale formations requiring stimulation to be extracted. These resources are estimated to range on a global scale between 150 and 508 billion barrels with a central estimate of 278 billion barrels.
Highlights
There is overwhelming scientific consensus that anthropogenic climate change poses very significant threats to humankind’s future life on earth (Pittock, 2009)
Estimates vary as to the global average temperature rise that can be endured and the maximal concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere consistent with that rise (Rockstrom et al, 2009) but there is little disagreement amongst those who accept the reality of anthropogenic climate change that very major changes are needed in human behaviour in order to manage the risk
Given the indirect goals of this exercise, though, this attribute may seem less important. It is strongly argued in the literature on deliberative democracy that participants should have the freedom to contribute to the list of options (e.g. Christiano, 1996) and there is reason to think that participants’ satisfaction with a process of citizen participation will be enhanced by the ability to make such contributions
Summary
The required characteristics of a putative method of citizen participation were discussed in Section 4 in the context of a suitable question on which the participation would be centred. The concept of ‘‘participatory emissions budgeting’’ is introduced and explored
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