A Review of Technological Forecasting from the Perspective of Complex Systems.

Abstract

Technology forecasting (TF) is an important way to address technological innovation in fast-changing market environments and enhance the competitiveness of organizations in dynamic and complex environments. However, few studies have investigated the complex process problem of how to select the most appropriate forecasts for organizational characteristics. This paper attempts to fill this research gap by reviewing the TF literature based on a complex systems perspective. We first identify four contexts (technology opportunity identification, technology assessment, technology trend and evolutionary analysis, and others) involved in the systems of TF to indicate the research boundary of the system. Secondly, the four types of agents (field of analysis, object of analysis, data source, and approach) are explored to reveal the basic elements of the systems. Finally, the visualization of the interaction between multiple agents in full context and specific contexts is realized in the form of a network. The interaction relationship network illustrates how the subjects coordinate and cooperate to realize the TF context. Accordingly, we illustrate suggest five trends for future research: (1) refinement of the context; (2) optimization and expansion of the analysis field; (3) extension of the analysis object; (4) convergence and diversification of the data source; and (5) combination and optimization of the approach.