A review of climate and landscape change effects on forest birds in a temperate mountain range

Birds are integral components of ecosystems and account for billions of dollars in tangible benefits to humans. As such, recent continental declines of bird species have ecological and economic consequences, providing the impetus for my dissertation research. I identified knowledge gaps and proposed novel questions about how birds in the Appalachian Mountains are influenced by changing environmental conditions due to climate change and forest management. The Appalachian Mountains encompass an important biogeographical region with high conservation value due to its myriad habitats and corresponding bird species diversity. Thus, there is a critical need to evaluate the effects of shifting climate factors and land management decisions on long-term trends in bird populations in this region. I designed my dissertation research to fulfill that need, developing 4 chapters that investigate the effects of temperature, precipitation, land cover, and management actions on Appalachian forest bird communities. The first 2 chapters of my dissertation emphasize the role of climate in the Appalachian Mountains. In Chapter 1, I determined the potential effects of both climate and land cover change on forest songbirds breeding in the Appalachian Mountains region by conducting a comprehensive review of published literature and presenting a novel case study. The literature review focused on synthesizing documented and predicted changes in bird species distributions, populations, and communities in response to changes in climate and land cover across the Appalachian Mountains. I concluded by noting the dearth of studies from the Appalachian Mountains that track long-term avian responses, particularly population dynamics, to changing climate and land cover. For my case study, I used 20 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data from 322 survey routes within the Appalachian Mountains Bird Conservation Region to model the regionwide abundance and distributions of 14 songbird species, disentangle the influences of climate versus land cover change, and predict the consequences of future shifts in climate and land cover patterns. I found that both climate and land cover variables were important in shaping forest songbird distributions. However, the proportions of land cover types tended to be more influential and had higher effect sizes than temperature or precipitation variables. When predicting future distributions of the 14 focal forest songbird species within the Appalachian Mountains, the future climate and land cover combination scenarios had varying but limited impacts on projected relative abundance, regional occupancy, and shifts in the distribution of relative abundance, with the strongest consistent effects on cold-associated species

Assessing the vulnerability of Thailand's forest birds to global change

The combined effects of climate and land cover changes influence hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner depending on the nature and severity of the changes. As such, estimating the impacts of these environmental changes on hydrologic responses is crucial for planning water resources management. However, such a comprehensive study is missing in most basins of Ethiopia, particularly in the Dhidhessa River basin (DRB). The aim of this study is, therefore, to quantify the combined and separate impacts of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrologic variables for the DRB. The Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model and statistical techniques were integrated for this study. Quantifying the separate and combined effects of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrologic responses at a local scale, and determining the relative contribution of the changes are the strength of this study. The result indicated better performance of the SWAT model in simulating water balance components for the DRB. Significant changes in hydrologic responses were observed in response to the land cover changes, and the increasing trends of temperature and rainfall observed during the last 30 years in DRB. The result showed increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET), streamflow, and surface runoff while decreasing groundwater recharge. Surface runoff was more affected by land cover change than by climate change, whereas streamflow and AET were more affected by climate change than land cover change during the last 30 years in the basin. The combined effects of land cover and climate changes played an offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET. Overall, the simulated hydrologic responses will have negative effects on water resource availability and agricultural production in the basin and the surroundings. Therefore, implementing integrated watershed management strategies, such as soil and water conservation and afforestation, could minimize the negative impact.

Long-term effects of combined land-use and climate changes on local bird communities in mosaic agricultural landscapes

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the "A1b" and "A2" scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-based model is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation, the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologic simulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor in regulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increase river discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deserves attention in climate change adaptation planning.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Over the past half-century, the risk of urban flooding in Dar es Salaam has increased due to changes in land cover coupled with climatic changes. This paper aimed to quantify the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on the magnitudes and frequencies of flood runoffs in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A calibrated and validated SWAT rainfall-runoff model was used to generate flood hydrographs for the period 1969–2050 using historical rainfall data and projected rainfall based on the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model. Results showed that climate change has a greater impact on change in peak flows than land-cover change when the two are treated separately in theory. It was observed that, in the past, the probability of occurrence of urban flooding in the study area was likely to be increased up to 1.5-fold by climate change relative to land-cover change. In the future, this figure is estimated to decrease to 1.1-fold. The coupled effects of climate and land-cover changes cause a much bigger impact on change in peak flows than any separate scenario; this scenario represents the actual scenario on the ground. From the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes, the magnitudes of mean peak flows were determined to increase between 34.4 and 58.6% in the future relative to the past. However, the change in peak flows from combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will decrease by 36.3% in the future relative to the past; owing to the lesser variations in climate and land-cover changes in the future compared with those of the past.

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red‐eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated‐detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit improved only marginally when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red‐eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. The weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicated that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change influencing the distributions of these species and, more importantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

Climate and land cover change are critical drivers of avian species range shift. Thus, predicting avian species' response to the land and climate changes and identifying their future suitable habitats can help their conservation planning. The common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) is a species of conservation concern in Iran and is included in the list of Iran's protected avian species. The species faces multiple threats such as habitat destruction, land cover change, and overhunting in the country. In this study, we model the potential impacts of future climate and land coverchange on the habitat suitabilityof common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) along elevational gradients in Mazandaran province in Iran. We used shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios and the 2015-2020 trend to generate possible future land cover projections for 2050. As for climate change projections, we used representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Next, we applied current and future climate and land cover projections to investigate how habitatsuitabilityofcommon pheasant willchange between 2020 and 2050 using species distribution modeling (SDM). Our results show that the species has 6000 km2 suitable habitat; however, between 900 and 1965 km2 of its habitat may be reduced by 2050. Furthermore, we found that the severity of the effects of climate and land cover change varies at different altitudes. At low altitudes, the impact of changing land structure is superior. Instead, climate change has a critical role in habitat loss at higher altitudes and imposes a limiting role on the potential range shifts. Overall, thisstudy demonstrates the vital role of land cover and climate change in better understanding the potential alterations in avian distribution.

Ecosystem services contribute significantly to human development, with water production being a crucial component. Climate and land use changes can impact water availability within a basin. In this context, researching water-related areas is essential for formulating policies to protect and manage hydrological services. The objective of this study was to estimate water yield in the sub-basins of the Tabacay and Aguilán rivers under climate change scenarios in 2030, 2040, and 2050, combined with scenarios of changes in land cover and land use. The InVEST model was employed to analyze water yield. The results show that crop areas were identified as the lowest water yield in future scenarios, and forested areas, particularly the region where the Cubilán Protected Forest is located, contribute the most to water yield in the subbasin. Besides, water yield has increased in the historic period (2016–2018) due to the conservation and reforestation initiatives carried out by the Municipal Public Service Company for Drinking Water, Sewerage, and Environmental Sanitation of the city of Azogues in 2018, the so-called Reciprocal Agreements for Water. Additionally, an increase in water yield is projected for future scenarios. This study can serve as a basis for decision-makers to identify areas that should prioritize protection and conservation.

Climate change and land use land cover (LULC) changes are recognised as two of the most significant causes of environmental change. Climate change and LULC changes are related to one another. Land use change may drive climate change, and a changing climate may result in land cover changes. Climate change and LULC changes are believed to influence soil erosion. This chapter analyses the impacts of climate and LULC changes on soil erosion. The causes and effects of climate change on precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and radiative forcing are discussed. The chapter includes the impacts of climate change on soil characteristics, vegetation cover, runoff, floods, and droughts and extends the impacts of these changes on water and wind erosion. The chapter explores the human alterations of LULC changes in terms of changes in the forest cover, alterations in agricultural lands, increase in urban areas, and decrease in wetland areas. The influence of the LULC changes on soil erosion and sediment production processes is discussed. Also, the combined impact of climate and LULC changes on soil erosion is explored, and mitigation strategies like sustainable land management practices and appropriate policy incentives to conserve soil are discussed.

Landscape composition creates a threshold influencing Lesser Prairie-Chicken population resilience to extreme drought

Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.

The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid-twenty-first century. A 60-year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi-decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub-basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double-digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AimGlobal declines in the populations of migratory species have been attributed largely to climate change and anthropogenic habitat change. However, the relative contribution of these factors on species’ breeding and non‐breeding ranges is unclear. Here, we present the first large‐scale assessment of the relative importance of climatic conditions and land cover on both the breeding and non‐breeding grounds in driving the long‐term population trends of migratory species.LocationEurope and Africa.MethodsWe use data on the long‐term population trends of 61 short‐ and 39 long‐distance migratory species of European breeding birds. We analyse these population trends in relation to changes in climate and land cover across species’ breeding and non‐breeding ranges over a 36‐year period, along with species’ migratory behaviour.ResultsThe population trends of European migratory birds appear to be more closely related to changes in climate than changes in land cover on their breeding grounds, but the converse is true on their non‐breeding grounds. While improvements in climate suitability across the breeding ranges of short‐distance migrants led to increasing population trends, the same was not true for long‐distance migrants. The combined effects of changes in climate and land cover account for approximately 40% of the variation in migratory species’ population trends, suggesting that factors other than climate and land cover as we have measured them, such as habitat quality, also affect the population trends of migrant birds.Main ConclusionsOver recent decades, population trends of most migrant species are most strongly related to climatic conditions on the breeding grounds but land cover change on the non‐breeding grounds. This suggests that management to stem the declines of migrant birds requires an integrated approach that considers all processes affecting migrant birds across their dynamic distributions throughout the year.