A renewal model with duration in a grade for manpower planning

Abstract

The duration of employees in a grade in a manpower system can influence the grade in which the employees are promoted to. Thus, an employee can have a double jump in promotion due to his/her length of stay in the grade before promotion. Existing Renewal models for manpower planning have not incorporated the duration of stay in a grade before promotion in the framework of the Renewal model. Delay in promotion could be due to economic recession during that period or lack of vacancy in the higher grade. However, this can increase the level of attrition in the organization. Thus, in this paper, the duration of employees in a grade before promotion is incorporated into the framework of the Renewal model. Specifically, we examined the case in which the employee has spent at least the minimum period in the grade. Such incorporation would go a long way to assessing the impact of duration of stay in a grade before promotion on the transition of the employees and gives room for precise prediction of the transitions in the system. We showed that the variance of the grade size at any time t in such a system is twice the variance of the recruitment in that grade at that time.