A Regional Retrospective Assessment of the Potential Stressors Causing the Decline of the Cherry Point Pacific Herring Run

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Pacific herring stock that spawns at Cherry Point, northwest of Bellingham, WA, has undergone a dramatic decline in the last 20 years. The population decline corresponds with a collapse of the age structure. The Cherry Point area contains three deep water shipping piers, two refineries, an aluminum smelter, and urban development. The Cherry Point Aquatic Reserve was formed initially to protect the spawning habitat of the Cherry Point Pacific herring run. We conducted a retrospective assessment using the relative risk model (RRM) to investigate the causes of the current decline of the Cherry Point run. The RRM combines aspects of the weight-of-evidence (WoE) approach and other methods of establishing causality into a framework that deals with multiple stressors, uncertainty, and spatial scale. An analysis of the Cherry Point Pacific herring age structure and population dynamics indicates that the loss of reproductive potential of the older age class fish was the population characteristic that led to the decline of the run. Exploitation, habitat alteration and climate change are the risk factors that contribute to the decline of the Cherry Point Pacific herring. The retrospective assessment identified the cyclic nature of climate change, as expressed by the warmer sea surface temperatures associated with a warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the primary factor altering the dynamics of the Pacific herring. Other factors are ranked accordingly along with the associated uncertainty. Criteria for selecting alternative endpoints for managing the Cherry Point Aquatic Reserve are also provided. The strengths of the retrospective RRM include its ability to combine a WoE and causality criteria with a multitude of stressors at a regional scale. The difficulties include how to deal with differences in the magnitude of effects, and expressing the uncertainty as distributions.