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Abstract
Awareness of the requested quantity and characteristics of emergency supplies is crucial for facilitating an efficient relief operation. With the aim of focusing on the quantitative study of immediate food supplies, this article estimates the numerical autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) model based on the actual data of 14 key commodities in the Sendai City of Japan during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Although the temporal patterns of key food commodity groups are qualitatively similar, the results show that they follow different ARIMA processes, with different autoregressive moving averages and difference order patterns. A key finding is that 3 of the 14 items are significantly related to the number of temporary residents in shelters, revealing that the relatively low number of different items makes it easier to deploy these key supplies or develop regional purchase agreements so as to promptly obtain them from distributors.
Highlights
Emergency events, such as Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake inJapan and the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, can strike a community with little warning and leave much devastation and many casualties behind
How to respond to such emergencies in the most efficient manner in order to minimize the loss of life and maximize the efficiency of the rescue operations is the ultimate aim of disaster relief [1,2,3,4]
autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) Model model of Alpharice riceasas example in order to estimate the trend time of trend food supplies in the Taking anan example in order to estimate the time foodofsupplies in the Tohoku
Summary
Emergency events, such as Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake inJapan and the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, can strike a community with little warning and leave much devastation and many casualties behind. The most heavily criticized aspect of official responses is often one of inefficient relief effort that does not punctually deliver the critical supplies needed to disaster-hit areas. How to respond to such emergencies in the most efficient manner in order to minimize the loss of life and maximize the efficiency of the rescue operations is the ultimate aim of disaster relief [1,2,3,4]. The main goal of emergency response efforts is to provide assistance to disaster victims as soon as possible [6]. An area that is in need of research is the estimation of immediate resource requirements, i.e., those supplies that satisfy needs generated by both the disaster itself and the ensuring response. For an extended period of time, this has been identified by FEMA as a high priority research topic [7,8]
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