Abstract
Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.
Highlights
A honey bee colony is a population of related and closely interacting individuals that form a highly complex society
To aid exploration of honey bee population dynamics here we describe a simple mathematical representation of how the social regulation of worker division of labour can influence the longevity of individual bees, and colony growth
It takes three weeks for worker bees to develop from eggs to adults [1], but their lifespan as adults is strongly influenced by their behavioural role in the colony
Summary
A honey bee colony is a population of related and closely interacting individuals that form a highly complex society. We have assumed that social inhibition is directly proportional to the fraction of the total number of adult bees that are foragers, such that a high fraction of foragers in the hive results in low recruitment.
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