A Probabilistic Automated Isochrone Picking Routine to Derive Annual Surface Mass Balance From Radar Echograms

Abstract

The surface mass balance (SMB) of West Antarctica is an important glaciological input to understanding polar climate and sea-level rise but with historically poor in situ data coverage. Previous studies demonstrate the utility of frequency-modulated continuous-wave radar to image subsurface layering in ice sheets, providing an additional source of data with which to estimate SMB. Traditional methods, however, require time-intensive manual oversight. Here, we present a probabilistic, fully automated approach to estimate annual SMB and uncertainties from radar echograms using successive peak-finding and weighted neighborhood search algorithms with the Monte Carlo simulations based on annual-layer likelihood scores. We apply this method to ground-based and airborne radar in a 175-km transect of the West Antarctic interior and compare the results to traditional manual methods and independent estimates from firn cores. The method demonstrates an automated estimation of SMB across a range of accumulation rates (100-450-mm water equivalent per year) and layer gradients up to 2 m/km. Based on likelihood-weighted F-scores, automated layer picks have a success rate between 64% and 84.6% compared with manually picked layers for three validation sites dispersed across the region. Comparisons between the automated SMB estimates and independent firn cores show a bias of 24 ± 70-mm water equivalent per year (12% ± 35% water equivalent of the in situ mean accumulation rate) although individual core site biases differ. This new approach permits the fully automated extraction of annual SMB rates and should be broadly and readily applicable to previously collected and ongoing radar data sets across polar regions.