A Preoperative Risk Prediction Model for Lymph Node Examination of Stage I-III Colon Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study.

Abstract

Background: Lymph node examination is a prognostic indicator for colon cancer (CC) patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk prediction model for inadequate lymph node examination.Methods: 24284 patients diagnosed as stage I-III CC between 2010-2014 were extracted from SEER database and randomly divided into development cohort (N=12142) and internal validation cohort (N=12142). 680 patients diagnosed as stage I-III CC between 2012-2014 were extracted from our hospital as external validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis was performed and risk score of each factor was calculated according to model formula. Model discrimination was assessed using C-statistics.Results: Preoperative risk factors were identified as gender, age, tumor site and tumor size. Patients with total risk score of 0-6 were considered as low risk group while patients scored ≥13 were considered as high risk group. The model had good discrimination and calibration in all cohorts and could apply to patients in the SEER database (American population) and patients in our hospital (Chinese population).Conclusions: The model could accurately predict the risk of inadequate lymph node examination before surgery and might provide useful reference for surgeons and pathologists.