A practical model for predicting soil water deficit in New Zealand pastures

Abstract

Soil water is the single most important resource for pasture and crop production in New Zealand farms. Because soil water is difficult to measure, however, the ability to predict soil water status from daily weather data is valuable, and has application for on‐farm irrigation, stocking, and supplementation decisions. In this paper a practical water balance model is presented. The model uses daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates to predict changes in the water content in two overlapping soil zones: a rapidly recharged (and depleted) zone of unspecified depth, and the total plant rooting zone. The use of two zones improves predictions of actual evapotranspiration and plant stress compared with models that use only one zone. An important factor determining the success of soil water models is the ability to predict actual evapotranspiration, AET. In this model actual evapotranspiration, AET, is calculated as the lesser of potential evapotranspiration, PET, and total readily available water (RAW) per day. RAW is defined as all of the water in the rapidly recharged surface zone plus a proportion of the water in the remainder of the soil profile. By validation against 11 historical data sets, the model is shown to give accurate predictions of soil water deficit across a range of New Zealand flat‐land pastoral soils. The model parameters can be easily estimated from commonly available soil properties (soil order classification, and available water holding capacity) without the need for additional site‐specific calibration. This model provides an easily used, practical decision tool for the management of drought, allowing early prediction of decline in pasture growth and estimates of required irrigation.