A novel method for carbon dioxide emission forecasting based on improved Gaussian processes regression

Investigating the effect of carbon tax and carbon quota policy to achieve low carbon logistics operations

Global warming is one of serious global problems. According to the presumption of International Maritime Organization (IMO), the amount of the greenhouse gas emissions from international maritime transportation represent 850 million tons in 2007. Furthermore, carbon dioxide emissions from international maritime transportation represent 3% of the world's total carbon-dioxide emissions. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions from maritime transportation. In this study, under the background of China's iron ore imports increased rapidly, the reduction effect of carbon-dioxide emissions by enlargement of a vessel is examined. In addition, Yangtze Estuary Deepwater channel in China is shallow and large vessels cannot pass which are fully loaded. Therefore, inquire into the reduction effect of carbon dioxide by enlargement of a ship, taking change of the draft by the loading state of a vessel into consideration. From restrictions of depth of water, enlargement of ship's size reduces a loading ratio, and it was understood that a medium-sized ship is desirable over coastal service transportation. In addition, as a result of verifying about the practical use effect of the tide in coastal service transportation, the loading ratio could be increased ten percent or more, and it turned out that it is effective in reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.

Despite the negative externalities on the environment and human health, today’s economies still produce excessive carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, governments are trying to shift production and consumption to more sustainable models that reduce the environmental impact of carbon dioxide emissions. The European Union, in particular, has implemented an innovative policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by creating a market for emission rights, the emissions trading system. The objective of this paper is to perform a counterfactual analysis to measure the impact of the emissions trading system on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. For this purpose, a recently-developed statistical machine learning method called matrix completion with fixed effects estimation is used and compared to traditional econometric techniques. We apply matrix completion with fixed effects estimation to the prediction of missing counterfactual entries of a carbon dioxide emissions matrix whose elements (indexed row-wise by country and column-wise by year) represent emissions without the emissions trading system for country-year pairs. The results obtained, confirmed by robust diagnostic tests, show a significant effect of the emissions trading system on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions: the majority of European Union countries included in our analysis reduced their total carbon dioxide emissions (associated with selected industries) by about 15.4% during the emissions trading system treatment period 2005–2020, compared to the total carbon dioxide emissions (associated with the same industries) that would have been achieved in the absence of the emissions trading system policy. Finally, several managerial/practical implications of the study are discussed, together with its possible extensions.

Meeting environmental constraints represents a particularly important condition that energy systems are currently facing, especially with the emphasis on mitigating global warming process. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions is therefore one of the main practices that can be used to achieve the objectives set by energy policies in this regard. This paper aims to assess the decrease of these emissions over a short timeframe, based on historical records regarding instantaneous electricity demand and generation by sources for the last ten years in Romania. For this purpose, an algorithm was developed in Matlab to calculate several quantities including total energy generated annually, average used capacity for each type of primary source and total carbon dioxide emissions. The predictor variable used to evaluate the yearly amount of emissions as the outcome variable was the total renewable energy share in electricity demand. The variation in time of the determined quantities is presented, as well as their approximate trend of evolution in order to foresight their values by 2020.

Life cycle carbon dioxide emissions for fill dams

Solving the problem of carbon dioxide emissions

In this study, we investigated the effect of carbon sequestration and sink on the environmental impact assessment of a housing redevelopment project. Through the case study, we found that the amount of carbon sequestration and sink increased with the increase of the area of park and green space and, furthermore, the amount of carbon emission decreased slightly with implementation of district heating and renewable energy. Therefore, it is necessary for its land use plan to be established to minimize the amount of net carbon emission, taking account of both the amount of present carbon emission and the amount of the future carbon sink, sequestration, and emission.

The paper presents statistic of the amount of direct Carbon emissions during wildfires of 2021 in the forested lands of Russia using long-term satellite data. In 2021, the area of ​​forest fire damages was 9.3 million hectares, and the amount of Carbon emissions was 66.4 MtC. These values are almost two points higher than the long-term average values. A comparison of similar indicators for twenty years allowed us to conclude that that year is anomalous with respect to the entire time series, similarly to the fire seasons of 2003 and 2012. The period or interval of recurrence of three anomalous fire seasons is nine years. We do not know the reason for the recurrence of anomalous fire seasons. At the same time, the forested areas damaged of the wildfires and the amount of direst Carbon and other greenhouse gases emissions in anomalous fire season years decreases from 127.2 MtC (3.7 p.) in 2003, 83.8 MtC (2.4 p.) in 2012 to 66.4 MtC (1.9 p.) in 2021.

Primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in China

To clarify the effects of generalized capitals and energy footprint on aggregate incomes and total carbon dioxide emissions, a cross-country panel analysis is applied in the present study. The generalized capitals included in this study are human capital, manufacture capital, natural capitals (as rents of fossil fuels, forest, and minerals). The energy footprint is represented by the primary energy consumption to index the overall domestic energy use. A Cobb–Douglas production function is used to empirically study on a panel of 21 European Union countries. Annual data of rents of natural capitals are used to represent the economic value of natural capitals that flows to the economy. The following are the main findings of this study: (1) Employing human and manufactural capital makes contributions to income growth and carbon reduction. This study’s evidence guides to clarify the misunderstanding of capital and capitalism. Innovations through well-developed and well-managed human and manufactured capital can help sustain income and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. (2) Energy footprint is the vital determinant to total carbon dioxide emissions and hence the most important part of climate policy. (3) The value currently commeasured by monetary terms and compiled by the World Bank is evidenced, not persistently contributed to the income, rather contributed to total carbon dioxide emissions, for the sake of the energy-intensive attributes in the resource-extracting industry. The natural capitals represented by the rent of extracting endowed natural resources can only represent part of the value of natural capitals to human beings. The virtue values of natural capitals in terms of amenity and life supporting are inevitable, but intangible and hence incommensurable. This value is still ignored and unable to enter the contemporary gate of monetary national accounting system.

This paper studies whether GDP can be replaced by GGDP and become the sole indicator of the nation’s economic development. As we know, GGDP is a key indicator of measuring the country’s economic health. So the total amount of carbon dioxide emission was chosen as an index to measure the climate, and the correlation between the total amount of GGDP and the total carbon dioxide emission was analyzed using the Spearman correlation coefficient. We calculate the weight of each country’s total carbon dioxide emissions, using TOPSIS algorithm based on entropy weight method, and then carry out the least squares linear regression for the total carbon dioxide emission and GGDP in each country, and obtain the linear regression equation. Add the weights to the six linear regression equations, and get the linear regression equation of the total carbon dioxide emission and GGDP. Through the analysis of the resulting model, GGDP can be used as one of the criteria to measure the health of a country’s economy, because it can really reflect the impact on climate change and, under certain circumstances, the economic level. Due to the uncertainty and unfairness of GGDP, GDP as a measure of national economy is still the mainstream and cannot be replaced by GGDP.

In this work, to ensure that Western China achieves the goal of peaking carbon emissions while developing, considering Guangxi as an example, based on the statistical data of population, economy, society, energy, urban development, and other dimensions from 2000 to 2021, the total amount of carbon emissions and sinks from 2000 to 2021 was calculated according to the recommended formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, the key factors affecting carbon emissions based on the ridge regression were identified, the STIRPAT carbon emission prediction model was constructed, and the carbon emissions of Guangxi from 2022 to 2040 were predicted for the three scenarios of different development paths. The results showed that the total carbon dioxide emissions （CO2） in Guangxi showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2021, growing from 95.49 Mt in 2000 to 390.15 Mt in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 6.93%. Energy structure, industrial structure, and urbanization ratio were the three significant influencing factors on carbon emissions in Guangxi. The carbon emissions could be 623.32 Mt and 591.20 Mt by 2040 in the high-carbon scenario and the medium-carbon scenario, respectively, while in the low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions could reach a peak at 531.99 Mt in 2035. In the three designed scenarios, Guangxi needs to face different emission reduction pressures to realize carbon peaking, and only the low-carbon development path can achieve carbon peaking before 2040. If carbon peaking in Guangxi needs to be achieved by 2030, green, low-carbon, and high-quality development should be further strengthened.

Fishing vessel operation highly depends on fossil fuels such as gasoline, diesel to generate power. Combustion of fossil fuel would generate greenhouse gas emission such as carbon dioxide. However, the estimation of carbon dioxide emission from fishing vessel is rather scarce in Malaysia. This paper describes carbon dioxide emission estimation from fishing vessels operation in Selangor. This study was conducted at four fisheries districts in Selangor where fishing vessels anchored for operation. Fishing operation activities were divided into four fisheries operation zones (A, B, C, and C2). It involved 3,252 fishing vessels. Firstly, carbon dioxide emission for each vessel is determined by using tier 1 method waterborne navigation equation provided from Chapter 3 mobile combustion, volume two Energy, 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory. After the carbon dioxide emission estimation was calculated, an inventory of emission was carried out. Then, ANOVA test was used to determine the significant differences between fishing gear and fisheries zones. Total carbon dioxide emission from fishing vessels operation in Selangor is 295.44 Gg CO2 for 2012. ANOVA test indicated there is difference in the mean carbon dioxide emission estimation between different types of fishing gear. There are also significant differences in the mean carbon dioxide emission estimation from four different fisheries zones in Selangor. Turkey Kramer Multiple Comparisons was applied to determine the pair of carbon dioxide emission of fishing vessels between types of fishing gears and fisheries zones. The burning of 89.35 Gg of fossil fuel by fishing operation released 295.4 Gg in 2012. Total amount of carbon dioxide emission from fishing vessel is low compare to latest Malaysia total carbon dioxide emission in 2000, 222,990 Gg CO2. In conclusion, status of carbon dioxide emission by fishing vessel operation has been determined for Selangor.KeywordsCarbon dioxide emissionFuel consumptionFishing vessel operation

According to theoretical analysis and empirical verification based on IPAT identity, the evolutionary process of carbon dioxide emissions driven by technical advances over time generally follow in sequence three inverted U shape curves in the long run, which are the inverted U shape curve of carbon dioxide emissions intensity, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, and total carbon dioxide emissions respectively. According to three inverted U shape curves, the evolutionary process of carbon dioxide emissions can be divided into four stages, that is: stage before the peak of carbon dioxide emissions intensity, stage between the peak of carbon dioxide emissions intensity and the peak of carbon dioxide emissions per capita, stage between the peak of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and the peak of total carbon emissions, the last stage comes behind total carbon dioxide emissions. Four stages’ driving forces are: carbon-intensive technological advance, economic growth, carbon-reducing technical advances, carbon-reducing technical advances respectively. Finally, our conclusion is: carbon dioxide emissions evolutionary process follows the law of three inverted U shape curves in turn, if we take measures to dealing with climate change, we should not be divorced from the basic development stage.

Based on the latest national carbon dioxide emissions data released from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the carbon dioxide emissions trends of BRICS were analyzed in three aspects: the total carbon dioxide emissions, the emission intensity calculated using purchasing power parties (PPP) and per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that the total carbon dioxide emissions among BRICS presented an increasing trend in different extent. On the other hand, the emission intensity calculated using PPP of BRICS showed a decreasing trend. The per capita carbon dioxide emissions of BRICS also presented an increasing trend in different extent. The Russian Federation and South Africa’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions were higher than the World’s average level, whilst those of India, Brazil and China were lower than the World’s average level, which is far less than the level of the OECD countries.