Abstract
Impacts of climate change on agriculture threaten food security. Limited water resources particularly in semi/arid environment affects agriculture. This study develops a framework to modify cropping patterns through minimizing irrigation water use. To evaluate projected changes, the developed method uses hydrometeorological variables from HadGEM2-ES under climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to estimate irrigation water requirement, best planting date, and number of growing days for crops over the Middle East. Results indicate that variety of the crops decreases in lower latitudes (below 30°N). Potato in the west of the Middle East needs to be replaced by maize. Oat is replaced by potato in north and center of the domain and replaced by wheat in east parts of the Middle East. In addition, results confirm that although a large increase of temperature occurs in northeast of the domain, crop pattern adjustment leads to the highest decrease of irrigation water need. In many central parts of the Middle East, the best planting date has been shifted to the wet season under both scenarios particularly RCP8.5 due to a greater increase of temperature. The developed method that can be used in different regions is valuable in climate change mitigation and adaptation for environmental conservation.
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