A novel framework for the assessment of hydro-meteorological risks taking into account nature-based solutions

Abstract

The growing exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards translates into increasing risks for people, territories, and ecosystems. The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of these hazards are expected to further increase in the next decades urging tangible decisions to reduce anthropogenic climate change and adapt to the risks to be faced. In this context, risk assessment is an essential tool for becoming aware of dangers and taking countermeasures. This paper proposes a novel predictive, yet holistic, framework that allows to take into account multiple risks classified according to six research fields, i.e. healthcare, society, ecosystem, heritage, infrastructure, and agriculture. Each contribution to the overall risk is evaluated in terms of economic losses and carbon-dioxide emissions that in turn affect adaptation ability and contribute to exacerbating climate change. Both economic losses and emissions are estimated as a cost per day to support political decision-making processes. In this regard, the framework integrates the effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies to include societal capacities to cope with hazards and respond to their potential consequences. As a guideline, this study reports a preliminary investigation of a heatwave event over a portion of Bologna Province (Italy) concluding that the current use of air-conditioning systems is not sustainable leading to a huge amount of losses. The novel framework can be adopted in future studies for selecting more cost-effective strategies as expected for Nature-based Solutions (NbS). The framework can indeed stand as a tool for estimating the local impact of NbS in the current or future climate scenarios.