A Note on Natural Gas Price Transmission from TTF to Other European Hubs

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a small but growing share of the global natural gas market. Global consumption of natural gas rose by 2.4 per cent between 2005 and 2015. The majority (70 per cent) of consumption relies on indigenous production. Most of the rest comes from pipelines, with LNGsourced natural gas growing from seven to nine per cent of consumption between 2005 and 2015.Global LNG imports increased rapidly between 2005 and 2011, rising from 193 to 334 billion cubic metres annually. They have stayed relatively constant since, averaging 324 billion cubic metres annually. Europe and Asia and Oceania are the primary recipients of LNG imports, accounting for 90 per cent of global imports from 2005 to 2015.An increase in global LNG liquefaction terminals accompanied the rise in imports. From 2005 to 2015, the number of liquefaction terminals increased from 20 terminals in 13 countries to 38 terminals in 20 countries. Total global liquefaction capacity rose by almost 90 per cent, mostly in the Middle East.The growth in LNG is largely attributable to an increasing mismatch between areas of natural gas supply and demand. As of 2016, the world’s natural gas reserves were estimated at 194,782 billion cubic metres, with the Middle East and Russia and Eurasia having the largest shares, respectively.Despite having smaller reserves, the largest gas-producing region is North America, which accounted for 26 per cent of global production from 2005 to 2015. Production in North America – and specifically the United States – steadily increased over this period as a result of advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing and a corresponding surge in shale gas.More so than other energy sources, the gaseous nature of natural gas has historically made it difficult to trade. This contributed to a rise in regional markets, with corresponding variation in prices. From 2010 to 2015 the LNG price in Asia was significantly higher than natural gas prices in Europe, which were in turn higher than prices in North America. These price differentials incited what was frequently referred to as the “LNG race,” with project proponents seeking to lock-in supply contracts and secure final investment decisions for new LNG liquefaction terminals.Although price differentials still remain, they have narrowed considerably since the start of the oil price crash in 2014. Lower prices, combined with a growing surplus of LNG liquefaction capacity, has led to a significant slowdown in the approval of new LNG liquefaction terminals in recent years.Looking ahead, however, another opportunity for LNG development lies on the horizon. Even if governments enact stringent measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas production and consumption is expected to keep growing – the only fossil fuel to do so. Forecasts also suggest that the mismatch between areas of supply and demand will continue to become more pronounced.Production growth in the Middle East, Russia and Eurasia, North America and Africa is forecast to exceed growth in demand. Correspondingly, all three regions are anticipated to have a growing natural gas surplus through to 2040. In contrast, Europe and Asia and Oceania both currently have natural gas deficits that are also forecast to grow.New infrastructure will be critical to getting natural gas to consumers. While pipelines remain the cheaper option for transporting natural gas, Russia and Eurasia is the only major producing region with significant or planned pipeline access to external demand markets. As a result, it is expected that a second wave of new LNG capacity will be required by the mid-2020s.Having missed out on the first LNG race, this second development window offers the most promising opportunity for proposed Canadian export facilities to enter the global LNG market. With numerous proposals for new liquefaction terminals on standby around the globe, however, this next wave of LNG development will again be highly competitive. It is therefore important that Canadian firms and investors act now to manage investment risks and position themselves to proceed with proposed projects as soon as the next window opens. Moreover, Canadian governments have an important role in ensuring the stability of policy and regulatory environments underpinning Canada’s attractiveness as an investment destination.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a small but growing share of the global natural gas market. Global consumption of natural gas rose by 2.4 per cent between 2005 and 2015. The majority (70 per cent) of consumption relies on indigenous production. Most of the rest comes from pipelines, with LNGsourced natural gas growing from seven to nine per cent of consumption between 2005 and 2015. Global LNG imports increased rapidly between 2005 and 2011, rising from 193 to 334 billion cubic metres annually. They have stayed relatively constant since, averaging 324 billion cubic metres annually. Europe and Asia and Oceania are the primary recipients of LNG imports, accounting for 90 per cent of global imports from 2005 to 2015. An increase in global LNG liquefaction terminals accompanied the rise in imports. From 2005 to 2015, the number of liquefaction terminals increased from 20 terminals in 13 countries to 38 terminals in 20 countries. Total global liquefaction capacity rose by almost 90 per cent, mostly in the Middle East. The growth in LNG is largely attributable to an increasing mismatch between areas of natural gas supply and demand. As of 2016, the world’s natural gas reserves were estimated at 194,782 billion cubic metres, with the Middle East and Russia and Eurasia having the largest shares, respectively. Despite having smaller reserves, the largest gas-producing region is North America, which accounted for 26 per cent of global production from 2005 to 2015. Production in North America – and specifically the United States – steadily increased over this period as a result of advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing and a corresponding surge in shale gas. More so than other energy sources, the gaseous nature of natural gas has historically made it difficult to trade. This contributed to a rise in regional markets, with corresponding variation in prices. From 2010 to 2015 the LNG price in Asia was significantly higher than natural gas prices in Europe, which were in turn higher than prices in North America. These price differentials incited what was frequently referred to as the “LNG race,” with project proponents seeking to lock-in supply contracts and secure final investment decisions for new LNG liquefaction terminals. Although price differentials still remain, they have narrowed considerably since the start of the oil price crash in 2014. Lower prices, combined with a growing surplus of LNG liquefaction capacity, has led to a significant slowdown in the approval of new LNG liquefaction terminals in recent years. Looking ahead, however, another opportunity for LNG development lies on the horizon. Even if governments enact stringent measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas production and consumption is expected to keep growing – the only fossil fuel to do so. Forecasts also suggest that the mismatch between areas of supply and demand will continue to become more pronounced. Production growth in the Middle East, Russia and Eurasia, North America and Africa is forecast to exceed growth in demand. Correspondingly, all three regions are anticipated to have a growing natural gas surplus through to 2040. In contrast, Europe and Asia and Oceania both currently have natural gas deficits that are also forecast to grow. New infrastructure will be critical to getting natural gas to consumers. While pipelines remain the cheaper option for transporting natural gas, Russia and Eurasia is the only major producing region with significant or planned pipeline access to external demand markets. As a result, it is expected that a second wave of new LNG capacity will be required by the mid-2020s. Having missed out on the first LNG race, this second development window offers the most promising opportunity for proposed Canadian export facilities to enter the global LNG market. With numerous proposals for new liquefaction terminals on standby around the globe, however, this next wave of LNG development will again be highly competitive. It is therefore important that Canadian firms and investors act now to manage investment risks and position themselves to proceed with proposed projects as soon as the next window opens. Moreover, Canadian governments have an important role in ensuring the stability of policy and regulatory environments underpinning Canada’s attractiveness as an investment destination.

In this paper we specify and estimate a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes, and test for causal relationships between natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period from January 1, 1996 to November 9, 2004 from Alberta’s (deregulated) spot power and natural gas markets. The model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price

In this paper we specify and estimate a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes, and test for causal relationships between natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period from January 1, 1996 to November 9, 2004 from Alberta’s (deregulated) spot power and natural gas markets. The model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price

The beginning of 2023 has witnessed the biggest decline in natural gas prices in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed supply demand, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have been down since June 2022 when Freeport LNG's export facility went offline due to a fire at its facility. The CME/NYMEX February natural gas futures contract slid to an 18‐month low of $2.94/MMBtu and expired at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54 percent from where the contract closed just two months earlier in December 2022. In other words, market prices plunged, and in the middle of the winter—usually the strongest period for natural gas sales and prices. The March contract extended the slide to a 20‐month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport's eventual return will restore existing LNG export capacity, thus picking up demand levels, and by the time of publication of this column may be back in service. However, there is no new LNG export capacity due online this year—for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest natural gas markets of the last decade in 2022, which pushed prices much higher than they had been for a long time, other than during the short but fierce Winter Storm Uri experience in 2021, things they are a'changing. The stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets the industry has seen in years. However, in keeping with the natural gas industry's history of keeping traders on their toes, it looks as if we are reaching the end of the steady oversupply we have experienced since 2009, when the Shale Revolution swarmed in to move the entire industry from shortage to abundance, and enabled U.S. energy independence to take root. How did we get here, and how does the future look for natural gas supply and prices?

Market reforms and determinants of import natural gas prices in China

What drives volatility in natural gas prices?

Is China's natural gas market globally connected?

Over the past three decades, the US natural gas market has witnessed significant changes. Utilizing a standard Bayesian model comparison method, this paper formally determines four regimes existing in the market. It then employs a Markov switching vector autoregressive model to investigate the regime-dependent responses of the market to its fundamental shocks. The results reveal that the US natural gas market tends to be much more sensitive to shocks occurring in regimes existing after the Decontrol Act 1989 than the other regimes. The paper also finds that shocks to the natural gas demand and price have negligible effects on natural gas production while the price of natural gas is mainly driven by specific demand shocks. Augmenting the model by incorporating the price of crude oil, the results show that the impacts of oil price shocks on natural gas prices are relatively small and regime-dependent.

Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach

Identifying price bubbles in the US, European and Asian natural gas market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach

LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model

China is currently the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter. In order to reduce the harm of carbon dioxide to the global ecological environment, the use of natural gas instead of coal is a realistic choice for China to achieve the “dual carbon” goal. Opportunities also bring new challenges, and the price of natural gas is an important method of promoting the upstream and downstream industrial chains of natural gas, so it is of great practical significance to study the price of natural gas. This paper builds a three-level supply chain model consisting of suppliers in the natural gas market, city gas companies and consumers in the market and uses the Stackelberg game to study the decision-making models of different subjects under their own dominance and centralized decision-making; it also considers the pricing mechanism and profit situation of stakeholders in the natural gas market under the low-carbon preference of consumers and the level of corporate carbon emission reduction. The research results show that when considering consumers’ low-carbon preferences, the sales prices of various stakeholders in the market have increased, which is beneficial for all entities in the natural gas industry chain. At the same time, with the low-carbon transformation of energy companies, the production method drives the price of raw materials to rise in the process of low-carbon innovation, which, in turn, makes the price of various stakeholders in the natural gas market and the level of carbon emission reduction per unit show a positive relationship; in order to maximize the overall profit of the supply chain, the natural gas market should adopt a centralized decision-making method to further promote the reform of China’s natural gas marketization.

The share of Natural Gas in global energy consumption has grown steadily and will continue to rise for the years to come. Forecasted supply of compromised natural gas is in the year 2050 to be 115-120 x 109 toe or 13.4-14% and 228 x 209 toe of remaining ultimate reserves or 12% of the total. Of the world’s two major natural gas provinces, the largest (Russia) is being exploited, while the other (The Middle East) is still rather untapped-hence its bearing on future gas supplies. India with its radiant market and high GDP growth rate promises to provide huge customer base for natural gas industry. Study on natural gas market in India is made in this paper. The paper gives a look into the opportunities arising out of the policy initiatives taken by the Government of India which are welcoming, though skewed development of the market due to regulated market pricing may be deterrent. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) technology is used for natural gas transportation for long distances. The development and implementation of technologies in this field have led to significant growth in worldwide LNG business. Lessons learned in design, implementation and execution of large LNG carriers(trains and ships), as well as overall changes of LNG liquefaction trains in last twenty-five years, have been key to evolving design of LNG value chain. This paper concentrates on natural gas reserves of Middle East and its potential of becoming the main supplier for the future, natural gas market in India, potential and limitation of gas supply scenario in India and LNG technology for transportation and its challenges in future.

This article develops a formal model for comparing the cost structure of the two main transport options for natural gas: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG.