A nomogram to predict the risk of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in Cirrhotic Patients

Abstract

Background and Aim: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis, affecting the prognosis of patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS). We aim to create a nomogram to predict hepatic encephalopathy- free survivals (HEFS) after TIPS in cirrhotic patients and select appropriate candidates for TIPS. Methods: Cirrhotic patients underwent TIPS from 2015 to 2018 in our department were included. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to estimate the predictors of overt HE (OHE) after TIPS within one year. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazard model using data from a retrospective training cohort (70% of the patients) was developed. Then the prediction model was validated in the remaining 30% patients by Harrell’s C-indexes, ROC curves and calibration plots. Results: Of 373 patients, 117 developed postoperative OHE (31.4%). The training and validation groups comprised 83 (31.4%) and 34 (31.2%) patients, respectively. The cumulative survival rates of patients with HE at 1, 2 and 3 years were 90%, 83% and 76%, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (CTP class), diabetes mellitus (DM), serum creatinine and serum sodium (C-index = 0.772). The C-index for HEFS prediction was 0.773 for the validation cohort. The ROC for predicting HEFS was 0.809 and 0.783, respectively. Conclusions: We created a nomogram of predicting postoperative HEFS in cirrhotic patients received TIPS. This nomogram could be an important tool of HE risk prediction before TIPS to guide the therapeutic strategy in cirrhotic patients.