Abstract
To develop a cirrhosis-predicted model in chronic hepatitis B virus carriers with alanine transarninase (ALT) less than two times the upper limit of normal (ULN). Treatment-naive patients (n=278), who had undergone liver biopsies, were randomly divided into two groups - a training group and a validation group. Thirteen bio-clinical parameters were analyzed. A liver cirrhosis-predicting model (PPT model) was constructed using multivariate analysis. The diagnostic value of the model was analyzed by the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) method and compared with other available models. A PPT model to predict liver cirrhosis was derived from three independent predictors of liver fibrosis [platelet count (PLT), prothrombin time (PT) and total bile acid (TBA)]. PPT model predicted cirrhosis with an area under the ROC (AUROC) curve of 0.83, a positive predictive value of 86.7% and a negative predictive value of 95.2%. Compared with APRI, FIB-4, age-AST model, AP index and APGA model, PPT model had the highest correlation coefficient (r=0.49) and greater predictive performance (AUROC of 0.83). The PPT model was accurate in predicting cirrhosis and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in chronic hepatitis B virus carriers with ALT less than two times ULN.
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