A multi-sectoral decomposition analysis of city-level greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China

Environmental regulation and carbon emission: The mediation effect of technical efficiency

Pathways for sustainable municipal energy systems transition: A case study of Tangshan, a resource-based city in China

The Chinese government announced to cut its carbon emissions intensity by 60%–65% from its 2005 level. To realize the national abatement commitment, a rational allocation into its subunits (i.e. industries, provinces) is eagerly needed. Centralized allocation models can maximize the overall interests, but might cause implementation difficulty and fierce resistance from individual subunits. Based on this observation, this article will address the carbon emission abatement quota allocation problem from decentralized perspective, taking the competitive and cooperative relationships simultaneously into account. To this end, this article develops an integrated cooperative game data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. We first investigate the relative efficiency evaluation by taking flexible carbon emission abatement allocation plans into account, and then define a super-additive characteristic function for developing a cooperative game among units. To calculate the nucleolus-based allocation plan, a practical computation procedure is developed based on the constraint generation mechanism. Further, we present a two-layer way to allocate the CO2 abatement quota into different sub-industries and further different provinces in Chinese manufacturing industries. The empirical results show that five sub-industries (Processing of petroleum, coking and processing of nuclear fuel; Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals; Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products; Manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical product; Smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals) and two provinces (Guangdong and Shandong) will be allocated more than 10% of the total national carbon emission abatement quota.

This study analyzed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector in Korea from 1990 to 2013 using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) factor decomposition methods. We decomposed these emissions into six factors: The population effect, the economic growth effect due to changes in the gross domestic product per capita, the energy intensity effect due to changes in energy consumption per gross domestic product, the transportation mode effect, the energy mix effect, and the emission factor effect. The results show that some factors can cause an increase in GHG emissions predominantly influenced by the economic growth effect, followed by the population growth effect. By contrast, others can cause a decrease in GHG emissions, predominantly via the energy intensity effect. Even though the transportation mode effect has contributed to a reduction of GHG emissions, it remains relatively small compared to other factors. The energy mix and emission factor effects contributed to the reduction of GHG emissions in the early 2000s, however the effects have led to an increase of GHG emissions since the mid-2000s. Altogether, based on these results, this study suggests some GHG mitigation policies aimed at achieving the national target for this sector.

The European mitigation strategy for combatting climate change requires up-to-date knowledge about the environmental effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the national scale. As a strong response to the consequences of climate change, the European Union has imposed on the member states an obligation to achieve the goals set out in the climate and energy package, which were aimed at reducing emissions. Therefore, underlying the trends of GHG emissions is essential when establishing climate change mitigation measures. This study identify the structure and dynamics of the GHG emissions of the six sectors of the European economies, over 27 years, and reveal the significance, direction, rate, and drivers of the observed trends using the method of modifying the absolute mean. The results indicate a decrease in the GHG emissions in the EU-28 by an average of 1% annually, which can be explained by a mixt factors, such as resize of the industry, improved energy efficiency, the growing share of renewables and less use of carbon fuels. Moreover, through the environmental policies adopted in the last decade, was observed that the GHG emissions level in 2017 had declined by approximately 25% in comparison with the reference (1990) and by approximately 17% by 2005. From the 28 EU countries (EU-28), Romania produced 4.2% of the total EU-28 GHG emissions in 1999, which decreased to 2.7% in 2005 and reaching 2.3% in 2017. Romania contributed to 14% of the average annual decrease in emissions. This evidence highlights the additional support for further reduction beyond that required for climate change mitigation.

Electric vehicles (EVs) emit substantially fewer air pollutants than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. However, the continuous increase in electricity demand from the power grid for EV charging, resulting from the growing adoption and total vehicle miles traveled, leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector. This study presents a predictive analysis of energy sector greenhouse gas emissions from EV charging at the regional level across the United States under various projection scenarios of technology costs, fuel prices, demand growth, and electricity sector policies. The predictive modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from EV charging is performed using a machine learning model developed on the Meta Prophet platform designed to capture temporal patterns and seasonality with a high level of precision. Trained on simulation data from the Cambium model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), our model provides accurate and continuous predictions of CO2, N2O, and CH4 emission rates from EV charging through 2050 under eight power generation planning scenarios, each outlining different projections for costs, prices, demand, and policy outcomes. Our analysis suggests that, by 2030, total grid emissions of CO2, N2O, and CH4 from EV battery charging in the United States are projected to decline by 52.67%, 65.71%, and 53.65%, respectively, compared to 2025 under the mid-case scenario, despite an overall increase of 152.57% in EV electricity demand. By 2050, emissions are expected to decline further by 80.13%, 94.15%, and 75.62%, respectively, with total EV electricity demand rising by 802.02%. Our scenario analysis results underscore the pivotal role of regional energy mixes and the pace of renewable energy deployment in decarbonizing transportation through electrification, highlighting the urgent need for proactive policy measures to accelerate the adoption of clean and renewable energy technologies in order to meet long-term climate targets.

With the official launch of China’s national unified carbon trading system (ETS) in 2017, it has played an increasingly important role in controlling the growth of carbon dioxide emissions. One of the core issues in carbon trading is the allocation of initial carbon emissions permits. Since the industry emits the largest amount of carbon dioxide in China, a study on the allocation of carbon emission permits among China’s industrial sectors is necessary to promote industry carbon abatement efficiency. In this study, industrial carbon emissions permits are allocated to 37 sub-sectors of China to reach the emission reduction target of 2030 considering the carbon marginal abatement cost, carbon abatement responsibility, carbon abatement potential, and carbon abatement capacity. A hybrid approach that integrates data envelop analysis (DEA), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to allocate carbon emission permits. The results of this study are as follows: First, under the constraint of carbon intensity, the carbon emission permits of the total industry in 2030 will be 8792 Mt with an average growth rate of 3.27%, which is 1.57 times higher than that in 2016. Second, the results of the carbon marginal abatement costs show that light industrial sectors and high-tech industrial sectors have a higher abatement cost, while energy-intensive heavy chemical industries have a lower abatement cost. Third, based on the allocation results, there are six industrial sub-sectors that have obtained major carbon emission permits, including the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals (S24), manufacturing of raw chemical materials and chemical products (S18), manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products (S23), smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals (S25), production and supply of electric power and heat power (S35), and the processing of petroleum, coking, and processing of nuclear fuel (S19), accounting for 69.23% of the total carbon emissions permits. Furthermore, the study also classifies 37 industrial sectors to explore the emission reduction paths, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations for different categories.

Our objective has been to decompose the energy-related industrial carbon emissions (ERICE) from both the macroeconomic and the microeconomic scales using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI), which few scientists have applied, for Jiangxi, China, over the period of 1998–2015. The macroeconomic factors were output, industrial structure, energy intensity, and energy structure. The microeconomic factors were investment intensity, R&D intensity, and R&D efficiency. It was found that output, R&D intensity, and investment intensity were mainly responsible for the increase of the ERICE, and their average annual contribution rates were 33.212%, 9.537%, and 4.200%, respectively. However, considering the infeasibility of decelerating industrial activities related to these three drivers, the development pattern of a circular economy was promoted. Then, the driving effect of the energy structure was the weakest (0.017%). Nevertheless, the potential of energy structure optimization to improve energy efficiency in Jiangxi should be given sufficient attention, e.g., greatly reducing the use of coal. Inversely, the R&D efficiency, energy intensity, and industrial structure presented obvious mitigating effects on the ERICE (− 13.737%, − 11, 652%, and − 7.804%, respectively). Therefore, some regulatory policy instruments have been recommended. For example, carbon reduction liability and carbon labels related to R&D investment should be implemented to encourage industrial firms to improve their energy efficiency. Then, reducing the energy intensity unceasingly while inhibiting the possible rebound effect should serve as a long-term strategy for the local government. Last, the potential mitigation effect of industrial structure optimization should be given sufficient attention when designing related reduction policies. Particularly, the top five energy-intensive subsectors S33 (Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power), S23 (Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals), S17 (Processing of Petroleum, Coking, and Processing of Nuclear Fuel), S22 (Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products), and S1 (Mining and Washing of Coal) should be given priority.

Decoupling CO2 emissions and industrial growth in China over 1993–2013: The role of investment

Air quality in China has gradually been improving in recent years; however, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region continues to be the most polluted area in China, with the worst air quality index. BTH and its surrounding areas experience high agglomeration of heavy-polluting manufacturers that generate electric power, process petroleum and coal, and carry out smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, raw chemical materials, chemical products, and non-metallic mineral products. This study presents evidence of the air pollution impacts of industrial agglomeration using the Ellison–Glaeser index, Herfindahl–Hirschman index, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. This was based on data from 73,353 enterprises in “2+26” atmospheric pollution transmission channel cities in BTH and its surrounding areas (herein referred to as BTH “2+26” cities). The results showed that Beijing, Yangquan, Puyang, Kaifeng, Taiyuan, and Jinan had the highest Ellison–Glaeser index among the BTH “2+26” cities; this represents the highest enterprise agglomeration. Beijing, Langfang, Tianjin, Baoding, and Tangshan also showed a low Herfindahl–Hirschman index of pollutant emissions, which have a relatively high degree of industrial agglomeration in BTH “2+26” cities. There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between enterprise agglomeration and air quality in the BTH “2+26” cities. This means that air quality improved with increased industrial agglomeration up to a certain level; beyond this point, the air quality begins to deteriorate with a decrease in industrial agglomeration.

Air quality in China has gradually been improving in recent years; however, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region continues to be the most polluted area in China, with the worst air quality index. BTH and its surrounding areas experience high agglomeration of heavy-polluting manufacturers that generate electric power, process petroleum and coal, and carry out smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, raw chemical materials, chemical products, and non-metallic mineral products. This study presents evidence of the air pollution impacts of industrial agglomeration using the Ellison-Glaeser index, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. This was based on data from 73,353 enterprises in "2+26" atmospheric pollution transmission channel cities in BTH and its surrounding areas (herein referred to as BTH "2+26" cities). The results showed that Beijing, Yangquan, Puyang, Kaifeng, Taiyuan, and Jinan had the highest Ellison-Glaeser index among the BTH "2+26" cities; this represents the highest enterprise agglomeration. Beijing, Langfang, Tianjin, Baoding, and Tangshan also showed a low Herfindahl-Hirschman index of pollutant emissions, which have a relatively high degree of industrial agglomeration in BTH "2+26" cities. There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between enterprise agglomeration and air quality in the BTH "2+26" cities. This means that air quality improved with increased industrial agglomeration up to a certain level; beyond this point, the air quality begins to deteriorate with a decrease in industrial agglomeration.

Uncertainty of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was analyzed using the parametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method and the non-parametric bootstrap method. There was a certain number of observations required of a dataset before GHG emissions reached an asymptotic value. Treating a coefficient (i.e., GHG emission factor) as a random variable did not alter the mean; however, it yielded higher uncertainty of GHG emissions compared to the case when treating a coefficient constant. The non-parametric bootstrap method reduces the variance of GHG. A mathematical model for estimating GHG emissions should treat the GHG emission factor as a random variable. When the estimated probability density function (PDF) of the original dataset is incorrect, the nonparametric bootstrap method, not the parametric MCS method, should be the method of choice for the uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions.

Life cycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from organic and conventional food production systems, with and without bio-energy options

The heavy pressure to improve CO2 emission control in industry requires the identification of key sub-sectors and the clarification of how they mitigate CO2 emissions through various actions. Focusing on 30 Chinese provincial regions, this study quantifies the contribution of each industrial sector to regional CO2 mitigation by combining the logarithmic mean Divisia index with attribution analysis and extract the key sectors of CO2 mitigation for each region. Results indicate that during 2010–2019, significant emission reduction was achieved through energy intensity (74%) in Beijing, while emission reductions were attained through industrial structure changes for Anhui (50%), Henan (45%), and Chongqing (45%). The contribution to emission reduction through energy structures is not significant. The production and supply of power and heat (PSPH) is a central factor in CO2 mitigation through all three inhibitive factors. Petroleum processing and coking (PPC) generally contributes to emission reduction through energy structures, while the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals (SPMF) through changes in industrial structures and energy intensity. PSPH and SPMF, in most regions, have not achieved the emission peak. Except in the case of coal mining and dressing (CMD), CO2 emissions in other key sectors have almost been decoupled from industrial development. CMD effectively promotes CO2 mitigation in Anhui, Henan, and Hunan, with larger contribution of PPC in Tianjin, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and that of smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals in Yunnan and Guangxi. The findings help to better identify key sectors across regions that can mitigate CO2 emissions, while analyzing the critical emission characteristics of these sectors, which can provide references to formulating region- and sector-specific CO2 mitigation measures for regions at different levels of development.

At present, urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from different wastewater treatment stages are attracting increasing attention. Based on the Guidelines of the China Greenhouse Gas List Compilation (Trial) and the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas List Guidelines in 2006, this paper evaluated urban GHG emissions from wastewater treatment in China from 2011 to 2020. The contribution rates of GHG emissions to the total GHG emissions were calculated for the different wastewater treatment stages. The variations in annual GHG emissions and differences in GHG emissions among different regions and provinces were also analyzed. The total amount of equivalent CO2 emissions reaches 1478.51 million tons, and the annual average amount of equivalent CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2020 is 147.9 million tons, which shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing. The distribution of GHG emissions from wastewater treatment is uneven among provinces and regions; Guangdong Province has the highest emission, while the Xizang autonomous Region has the lowest. The correlation and contribution rate analysis revealed that paper production and chemical and side food production could discharge a large amount of wastewater with a high COD content, which may have an important impact on GHG emissions during the wastewater treatment stages. According to the study results, CH4 accounts for the largest proportion (63.08%) of the total GHG emissions. The most important source of CH4 comes from the industrial wastewater treatment stage. The annual average CO2 emissions account for 22.24% of the total GHG emissions, which are mainly from the power and chemical consumption stage. The annual average N2O emissions account for 14.68% of the total GHG emissions and are mainly from the wastewater collection and discharge stage. Therefore, in the future, GHG emission reduction strategies should focus on CH4 emissions in the industrial wastewater treatment stage and develop CH4 recycling and utilization technologies.