A most‐recognized principle to define El Niño and La Niña years based on the K‐line diagram technique

Abstract

ABSTRACTDespite the many improvements that have been achieved in prediction methods, considerable uncertainties in the models and the observing systems remain in El Niño Southern Oscillation predictions. One of the uncertainties is the definition of El Niño and La Niña years. Because academia has accepted too many indexes, there is much confusion among scientists regarding whether El Niño and La Niña events have occurred. In the view of this author, the oceans on this planet can be vividly called ‘ocean stabilization machines’ (OSMs). When some part of an OSM loses control for unknown reasons, other parts of the OSM function stabilize the atmospheric circulation. As a result, El Niño or La Niña events occur. In this study, we use a most‐recognized principle to determine El Niño (La Niña) years based on a K‐line diagram technique. This technique not only focuses on the anomaly of five accepted indexes, but also aims at the signals of an on‐going crash downward or a dramatic upward tendency of the sea‐surface temperature. To achieve this purpose, a new terminology, ‘suspected El Niño (La Niña) years’ and an Ocean Stabilization Index (OSI) expressing the state of the Pacific are proposed. The results indicate that there were only 10 El Niño years and 12 La Niña years from 1950 to 2012. Significant statistical relationships between the annual OSI and 14 indexes are also found.