A model-based estimation and mapping of school-age children living in poverty in the local areas of South Africa

Abstract

Poverty, inequality, and unemployment are on the rise in South Africa. The focus of this study is on school-age children in poverty. Education is a critical policy imperative for the country. Model-based small area estimation was conducted to estimate the different poverty measures for lower and upper bound poverty levels. The primary data sources are the Income and Expenditure Survey 2010/2011 and the 2011 national population census. The model diagnostics and the validation of the estimates showed that the model-based estimates at the local municipality level are more reliable than the direct estimates. There are significant variations in poverty across the local municipalities of South Africa; therefore, spatially targeted poverty alleviation programmes are more beneficial.