Abstract
Meteorological factors have been shown to affect the physiology, distribution, and amounts of inhaled allergens. The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict the trends for onset of allergic rhinitis (AR) patients. A total of 10,914 consecutive AR outpatients were assessed for the number of daily patient visits over a period of 4 years. Meteorological data were used to assess the relationship between meteorological factors and AR incidence by time-series data and regression analysis. Predictive models for incidence of AR were established in pollen-, dust mite- and mould-sensitive groups of patients, and the predictive performances of meteorological factors on the incidence of AR were estimated using root mean squared errors (RMSEs). The incidence of pollen-, dust mites- and mould-sensitive AR patients was significantly correlated with minimum temperature, vapour pressure, and sea-level pressure, respectively. The correlation between comprehensive meteorological parametric (CMP) and incidence of AR was higher than the correlation between the individual meteorological parameters and AR incidence. CMP had higher performance than individual meteorological parameters for predicting the incidence of AR patients. These findings suggest that the incidence of pollen-, dust mites- and mould-sensitive AR can be predicted employing models based on prevailing meteorological conditions.
Highlights
Allergic rhinitis (AR) is an inflammatory disease of the nasal mucosa, induced by an immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated reaction in allergen-sensitized subjects[1]
We assessed the associations between meteorological factors and allergic rhinitis (AR) incidence over a period of four years, in mostly residents from Beijing (96.9%) and to a smaller extent from neighbouring cities (3.1%)
AR patients sensitized to pollen, dust mite and mould were investigated primarily because these allergens are the main causes of AR in Beijing 3and because they all show onset peaks between August and September (Fig. 2), which suggests that the incidence of AR may possibly be influenced by meteorological conditions
Summary
Allergic rhinitis (AR) is an inflammatory disease of the nasal mucosa, induced by an immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated reaction in allergen-sensitized subjects[1]. Several studies have demonstrated that inhaled allergens, including pollen, mould, and dust mites, as well as exposure to cockroach and animal wool in the environment, may trigger the exacerbation of AR attacks[7,8,9]. Other studies have demonstratedmeteorological factors such as temperature, irradiance, and relative humidity toaffect the physiology, distribution, and amounts of these allergens[1, 10,11,12], suggesting that meteorological factors are associated with allergic disease outbreaks and severity. The aim of this study was to develop a model for predicting the trends for onset of AR patients, based on correlation between meteorological factors and incidence of AR in patients sensitized to pollen, mould and house dust mite allergens
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