A model for using control theory to design sustainable policies for greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now an important and urgent matter. A key observation is that systems control theory can be used to design the optimal policy that both achieves sustainable levels of emissions of CO 2 (and other greenhouse gases) and minimises the impact on the economy, while explicitly addressing the high levels of uncertainty associated with predictions of future emissions. As an initial result, in this paper a test bed for the above approach — the UK 4see model — is introduced, which is suitable for using control theory to design sustainable policies for greenhouse gas emissions. The basic structure and principle of the model is described and its implementation in Matlab Simulink is presented. A linearised state space model is then obtained, analysed and further simplified via standard model reduction techniques. The model established in this paper provides a method of predicting future greenhouse gas emission levels and economic growth against different energy policies and forms the basis for future research on using systems control theory to design optimal sustainable policies.