A model for predicting the overall survival of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms after surgery

Abstract

Background The increase in the incidence of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NENs) and refined morphological imaging techniques have led to a rise in the number of patients undergoing surgery. However, there is still a paucity of objective, clinically reliable and personalized tools to evaluate patient prognosis. Materials and methods We identified patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database who underwent surgery for GEP-NEN from 1975 to 2018. The predictors associated with OS were investigated by Multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PHs) regression analysis in the primary cohort; a prognostic nomogram was then built based on the multivariate analysis results. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and compared with the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Results A total of 45,889 patients were enrolled in our study; 32,321 were included in the primary cohort, and 13,568 were included in the validation cohort. A nomogram incorporating Age, Differentiation, M staging, and AJCC staging was subsequently built based on the multivariate analysis. The C-index (0.833 for the primary cohort and 0.845 for the validation cohort) and calibration curves indicated good discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram. Further analysis demonstrated that the nomogram had superior discriminatory ability than the AJCC staging system (C-index= 0.706). Conclusion The proposed nomogram showed excellent prediction with good calibration and discrimination, which can be used to make well-informed and individualized clinical decisions regarding the clinical management of GEP-NENs.