A Methodology to Assess Uncertainties and Risks in Heavy Oil Projects

Abstract

Abstract The commercial success of heavy oil projects highly depends on the intensive use of the right combination of technologies and competencies during the life cycle of reservoir assets in order to achieve world class recovery of hydrocarbons, with highly productive wells and flow assurance supported by a reliable production infrastructure including oil upgrading facilities in some cases. When projects are located in environmentally or socially sensitive areas other technologies are required to assure the viability and sustainability of the project. In this paper we present a methodology to assess uncertainties and risks of heavy oil projects using Front End Loading (FEL) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and it is based on comparing data and information systematically during the definition phase vs. results from the execution phase of similar projects. We have applied this methodology successfully in several heavy oil projects providing an alternate approach to complex data hungry methods. A general model and taxonomy is used to standardize activities performed in the different phases of a heavy oil asset project life cycle allowing adapting and adopting this methodology for any heavy oil field. All activities are classified based on their impact in capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX) using FEL to establishing the level of definition of each asset component and Life Cycle Costing for comparing different scenarios with combination of technology options. Uncertainty and risk analysis is performed for all cost driven variables by analyzing cause and effects relationships and assigning typical probabilistic distributions for key and important activities in each phase of the heavy oil asset life cycle. The standardized heavy oil asset model provides an acceptable representation of life cycle phases of asset components (natural and physical) so the associated costs can be forecasted probabilistically using data and information from projects in similar assets (analogs) and technologies. We recommend application of this methodology as an alternative for traditional project planning especially during early phases of a heavy oil assets life cycle particularly discovery and appraisal and we provide a roadmap with hands on description of work flows and techniques so it can be applied by asset project teams who can create data bases with standardized data and information from heavy oil asset projects that can be shared to improve recovery of existing heavy oil resources at worldwide level.