Abstract
We propose a mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. Our model describes the multiple transmission pathways in the infection dynamics, and emphasizes the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission and spread of this disease. Our model also employs non-constant transmission rates which change with the epidemiological status and environmental conditions and which reflect the impact of the on-going disease control measures. We conduct a detailed analysis of this model, and demonstrate its application using publicly reported data. Among other findings, our analytical and numerical results indicate that the coronavirus infection would remain endemic, which necessitates long-term disease prevention and intervention programs.
Highlights
A severe outbreak of respiratory illness started in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China, in December 2019
Recent comparisons of the genetic sequences of this virus and bat coronaviruses show a 96% similarity [3]. This is the third zoonotic human coronavirus emerging in the current century, after the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2002 that spread to 37 countries and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 that spread to 27 countries
We have proposed a mathematical model to investigate the on-going novel coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China
Summary
Yang and Wang breathing difficulty, and bilateral lung infiltration in severe cases, similar to those caused by SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections [4]. Their results indicate that bats and minks may be two animal hosts of this virus Most of these models have emphasized the significant role of the direct, human-to-human transmission pathway in this epidemic [16], as highlighted by the facts that the majority of the infected individuals did not have any contact with the marketplaces in Wuhan, that the number of infections has been rapidly increasing, and that the disease has spread to all provinces in China as well as more than 20 other countries. When the infection level is high, people would be motivated to take necessary action to reduce the contact with the infected individuals and contaminated environment so as to protect themselves and their families, leading to a reduction of the average transmission rates Such varied transmission rates reflect the strong disease control measures that the Chinese government has implemented, including large-scale quarantine, intensive tracking of movement and contact, strict isolation, extending the Lunar New Year holiday, and advising the public to stay home and avoid spreading infection.
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